Markets have been ultra-sensitive to data for some time now, going back to market pricing for hikes starting in late 2021. More recently, several strong US inflation prints have de-railed the potential for upcoming Fed cuts, while upside surprises have occurred in Canada, the UK and Australia in the recent weeks. Will these data points be determinant for upcoming central bank decisions? What important releases are to come?

Participants:

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The latest resilience in the US has kick started a debate about how much other regions that appear to not show the same kind of underlying strength can diverge from the Fed and cut rates regardless. We see the best chances of that happening in Canada, but also provide updated views on the BoE, ECB and RBA. Meanwhile, the gyrations in the JPY keep investors on their toes and we add our voice to the mix of what lies in store.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake/Izaac: FOMC
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are wavering as US economic data continues to come in hot. But that economic performance hasn’t necessarily been replicated in other regions. Will other major central banks feel pressure to keep in step with the Fed or start marching to the beat of their own drummers?

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The question on everyone’s mind is when central banks will start cutting rates. Over the past month, market pricing has progressively gravitated from a near certainty that the BoC and Fed would cut by June to now under a 50% chance. In the UK the pricing for a June cut is higher than a month ago but less than two weeks ago, while for the ECB the market has been resolute in pricing a June start date.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Lori Calvasina (Research),Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

While markets are parsing through central bank communication for the timing and pace of rate cuts, the future of central bank balance sheets is increasingly in focus as well. What will happen with quantitative tightening? And what will balance sheets look like in a future steady state?

Participants:

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Robert Thompson (Research), Australia Macro Rates Strategist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It appears that markets have retraced some of their expectations for central bank action much closer to where speakers are guiding investors - in other words, we are trading much closer to what most people would consider 'fair value'. We sense a long bias in the fixed income markets and the question whether this is a sign of things to come offers itself. Meanwhile, FX markets are trading sideways and question about what can break the lethargy should be asked.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Gordon Scott (Desk Strategy), Euro Area Economist
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets came into 2024 pricing in aggressive central bank cutting cycles. But continued resilience in growth and labor market data, along with some recent wobbles in the downward march of inflation has markets (and policymakers) pumping the brakes.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The narrative from central banks has decidedly shifted from the risk of further tightening to signaling the next move will be lower. To paraphrase the message Powell gave us last week – we have confidence, and our confidence has increased that inflation will meet our objective, but we need more confidence before we start to cut. With central banks expecting a soft landing, they are gently easing into the easing cycle. When will central banks have enough confidence to pull the trigger & where will policy rates ultimately land?

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts