Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the tools of financial statecraft, how they have evolved over the years, and their implications for digital currencies moving forward. Specifically, David and Josh also discuss how financial statecraft would be applied to a possible conflict with China, the current state of the cross-border payments system, the future of wholesale CBDC in the US, and much more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Josh’s Twitter: @joshualipsky

Josh’s Atlantic Council profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Sanctioning China in a Taiwan Crisis: Scenarios and Risks* by Charlie Vest, Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchaud, Josh Lipsky, Kimberly Donovan, Charles Lichfield, and Niels Graham.

*The Geopolitical Imperative to Upgrade the Dollar* by Jordan Bleicher and Josh Lipsky

*Stablecoins and National Security: Learning the Lessons of Eurodollars* by Timothy Massad

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:04:02) – The Russia Sanctions as an Example of Financial Statecraft

(00:10:14) – The Financing of the Russia-Ukraine War

(00:14:08) – The Delicacy of Legal Precedents and the REPO Act

(00:19:10) – Breaking Down the Tools of Financial Statecraft

(00:22:08) – Applying Financial Statecraft to a Possible China Conflict

(00:28:52) – Cross-border Payments and the Global Status of the US Dollar

(00:34:05) – Breaking Down the Development and Geopolitical Importance of mBridge

(00:38:34) – The Future and Importance of Wholesale CBDC in the US

(00:43:28) – Private Sector Alternatives to CBDCs

(00:45:05) – Where is the CBDC Conversation Headed?

(00:49:25) – Closing Thoughts: The 80th Anniversary of Bretton Woods and the Future of Dollar Dominance

(00:52:48) – Outro

Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Steven rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the financial stability implications of the discount window. David and Steven also discuss the issues with FHLBs, how to fix the challenge of reporting requirements, restarting the term auction facility and committed liquidity facilities, and much more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Steven’s Twitter: @StevenKelly49

Steven’s blog: Without Warning

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Domestic Liquidity Provision During Potential Crises* - a panel discussion featuring Steven Kelly, Bill Nelson, Susan McLaughlin, and Luc Laeven at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2024 Financial Markets Conference

*Weekly Fed Report Still Drives Discount Window Stigma* by Steven Kelly

*The New Bagehot Project* - an initiative by the Yale Program on Financial Stability

*Forward Guidance: Something Old and Something New: Two Potential, Beneficial Discount Window Facilities* by Bill Nelson

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:02) – The Yale Program on Financial Stability and Steven’s Role

(00:07:04) – Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework

(00:12:45) – Addressing Issues in the Discount Window

(00:21:37) – Responding to Criticism of Liquidity Regulations

(00:27:22) – Fixing the Challenge of Reporting Requirements

(00:33:29) – Restarting the Term Auction Facility and Committed Liquidity Facilities

(00:37:24) – Addressing the Issue with FHLBs

(00:45:26) – Additional Thoughts from the Atlanta Fed Conference Panel

(00:50:59) – Could Increased Use of the Discount Window Cause a Shift in the Fed’s Operating System?

(00:54:44) – Outro

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie’s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie’s Budget Lab profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi

*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi

*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers

*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos

*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller’s ‘Soft-Landing’ Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Ernie’s Experience at the CEA

(00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy

(00:15:28) – Ernie’s Favorite Measures of the Labor Market

(00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures

(00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium

(00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege

(00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars

(00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars

(00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity

(00:58:22) – Outro

Mickey Levy is Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia for Berenberg Capital Markets, a Wall Street veteran, and a longstanding member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. He and his co-author, Charles Plosser, also have a new paper out titled, *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot.* Mickey joins David on Macro Musings to discuss this paper and its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve framework review. David and Mickey also discuss the impact and importance of a flat Phillips curve, the Fed’s policy mistakes in the wake of its new flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework, recommendations for how the central bank should approach the next framework review, and much more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Mickey’s Twitter: @mickeylevy

Mickey’s website

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:50) – Mickey Levy’s Career Path and Takeaways from the Most Recent Hoover Monetary Policy Conference

(00:07:24) – What Shaped the First Framework Review?

(00:11:56) – The Fed’s Addition of “Symmetric” Inflation

(00:16:32) – Price Level Drift, Deflationary Fears, and Inflation Expectations at the Fed

(00:23:33) – The Impact and Importance of a Flat Phillips Curve

(00:27:34) – Breaking Down the Elements of FAIT and the Fed’s Policy Mistakes

(00:42:11) – Recommendations for the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review

(00:57:54) – Outro

Lars Christensen is a founding member of the market monetarist tradition, an entrepreneur in the AI space, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. Lars rejoins the podcast to talk about AI and its implications for the economy and for monetary policy. David and Lars also discuss the basics and implications of dynamic pricing, AI’s growing use within econometric analysis, how AI will impact the Fed and its policymaking, and much more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Lars’s Twitter: @MaMoMVPY

Lars’s blog

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*From Merchants to Quants: The Digital Revolution in Retail* by Lars Christensen

*Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:16) – Lars’s Move from Macro to AI

(00:08:02) – The Basics and Implications of Dynamic Pricing

(00:16:17) – Using AI for Econometric Analysis

(00:23:54) – The Implications of AI for the Economics Field

(00:35:45) – How Will AI Impact the Federal Reserve and its Policymaking

(00:38:55) – Deflation as a Response to an AI Driven Productivity Shock

(00:52:08) – Outro

Photo Credit: Nordnet Bank

Ryan Bourne is the R. Evan Scharf Chair for Public Understanding of Economic at the Cato Institute, and he is also the editor and contributor to a new book titled, *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy.* Ryan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book, and specifically, the history and functionality of rent and price controls, the basics of dynamic pricing, the root causes of inflation, and a lot more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Ryan’s Twitter: @MrRBourne

Ryan’s Cato profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Created Bad Policy* by Ryan Bourne et al.

*I, Pencil* by Leonard Read

*Forty Centuries of Wage and Prices Controls: How Not to Fight Inflation* by Robert Schuettinger and Eamonn Butler

*Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:05) – The Background Motivation for “The War on Prices*

(00:06:32) – The Definition and Importance of Prices

(00:12:41) – The Parable of “I, Pencil”

(00:18:39) – Rationing on Quality or Quantity: Rent Control

(00:26:39) – The World War II Experience with Price Controls

(00:32:58) – Price and Wage Controls During the Nixon Administration

(00:35:48) – The Effects of a Minimum Wage

(00:38:38) – The Basics of Dynamic Pricing

(00:44:03) – Defining Inflation and Establishing its Sources

(00:56:08) – Was the Recent Inflation Surge Actually Optimal?

(00:59:51) – Outro