Data shows that chain restaurants grew by 3% last year, while smaller independent restaurants declined by more than 2% as they struggled to navigate rising prices for real estate, food, insurance, and labor. When all restaurants are basically the same city to city, what does it mean for the unique flavor of a place? But first, Iran has ratcheted up its attacks on Gulf countries and in the Strait of Hormuz.

Yesterday, the U.S. trade representative announced an investigation into unfair trade practices that could result in a whole new round of import taxes. The Trump administration will be looking into whether more than a dozen countries are producing too much, flooding the U.S. with cheap products, and making it hard for American companies to compete. Then, war is complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. And later, could price caps help bring down grocery bills?

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage in many global supply chains, is basically shut down as fighting continues in the region. All this has throttled shipments of oil and gas, but supply chains for other goods — like helium and aluminum — are being detrimentally affected, too. This morning, we'll dig into which regions are being hit hardest by the disruptions. Plus, another partial government shutdown means more pain for TSA screeners and passengers.

$800 million a day. That's the rough monetary estimate of how much the U.S. military operation in Iran is costing taxpayers, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model — in addition, of course, to the horrible human toll of war. This morning, we'll do the numbers on the costs of military technology and impacts on everyday consumers. Plus, the globe competes for liquefied natural gas, and Meta acquires Moltbook, the social network for AI.

A recent survey of 100 CEOs at major companies by the audit, tax, and advisory firm KPMG finds that AI and policy uncertainty around tariffs are top of mind. Today, we'll dig into the survey's findings. But first, oil markets have been on a rollercoaster ride as of late. We'll discuss why markets have recovered a bit this morning and what impact a potential presidential waiver of oil sanctions could have.

Just to get you up to speed on oil prices: Brent Crude is at $92 a barrel this morning. Yesterday morning, it was at $117. While prices have dipped, they're still higher than they were before the Middle East war began. That means more money for oil producers. So will domestic producers use that extra cash to drill more? Also: the latest in Anthropic’s dispute with the Pentagon and what to make of last year’s big jump in product recalls.

Oil prices came close to hitting $120 a barrel yesterday. This morning, they're hovering around $100 a barrel. Gas prices are also up 27 cents in a week, a price increase that'll pinch consumers and could dent consumer spending. In response to the spike in oil prices, some nations are discussing releasing oil reserves from their stockpiles. Then, we'll head to the Texas-Mexico border, where a parasitic fly poses a threat to the cattle industry.

Economists are still digesting last Friday's jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 jobs in February. The labor force participation rate — the percentage of working-age people who are either working or looking for work — fell to 62%. That's the lowest since December 2021 and means some people are giving up even looking for a job. We'll dig into the importance of that figure. Also on the show: oil prices and existential threats.