Episodes

  • Market Seasonality, Tech Stock Concentration, & RIA vs Broker
    Jul 20 2024

    In this week's episode of Money Wise, Jeff kicks off the episode by providing a detailed market performance summary. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 287 points (0.7%), while the S&P 500 dropped by 110 points (2%) and the NASDAQ fell by 672 points (3.6%). Year-to-date, the Dow is up 6.9%, the S&P 500 has increased by 15.4%, and the NASDAQ is up 18.1%. The Money Wise guys discussed their cautious outlook due to recent significant run-ups, advising listeners to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy, particularly during historically weaker months like August and September. The market's downturn later in the week was attributed to negative comments from President Biden and former President Trump regarding trade with China and Taiwan.

    The conversation also highlights the dominance of a limited number of tech stocks driving much of the market's performance, such as NVIDIA, up 144.5% for the year, and other high performers like Netflix and Broadcom. The guys expressed skepticism about the sustainability of this narrow leadership, suggesting a broader market correction might be imminent. They noted early signs of market rotation, with money moving from large-cap tech stocks into small and mid-cap stocks, potentially broadening the market's performance base. This rotation could help sustain the bull market, provided it continues.

    Market Seasonality

    Market seasonality refers to the predictable patterns and trends that occur at specific times of the year in the stock market. These patterns are often influenced by historical data, economic cycles, and investor behaviors. For example, the months of August and September are historically weaker periods for market performance, often experiencing lower returns or increased volatility. Understanding market seasonality is important because it helps investors anticipate potential market fluctuations and adjust their strategies accordingly. By recognizing these seasonal trends, investors can make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions, manage risk, and optimize their portfolios for better long-term performance.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys give their take on the RIA vs Broker debate. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 21 mins
  • Tech Dominance Continues, Small Cap Surges, & Investor Psychology
    Jul 13 2024

    The Money Wise guys are back in the studio after a break and as always, they start with an an overview of Wall Street’s performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an increase of 645 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 was up by 48 points, or 0.9%. The NASDAQ also experienced a rise, gaining 46 points, or 0.2%. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones is up 6.1%, the S&P 500 has increased by 17.7%, and the NASDAQ has surged by 22.6%. During the week, significant market activity was observed, including intraday all-time highs for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ, although neither closed at those highs. The discussion pointed out the ongoing dominance of big-cap tech companies in driving market performance, with the NASDAQ up 22.6% by mid-July. The conversation also touched on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s recent testimony and a lighter Consumer Price Index report, which initially boosted market sentiment.

    Interestingly, there was notable profit-taking in large-cap tech stocks, with the sale volume indicating computer program trading. This profit-taking benefitted smaller asset classes, like small caps and mid caps, leading to a significant day for diversified portfolios. One standout statistic was the performance differential on Thursday between the Russell 2000 (small cap index) and the NASDAQ, marking the largest such difference since 1986. However, there was no follow-through on Friday, with investments shifting back into large-cap leaders. The market cap-weighted S&P 500 outperformed its equally weighted counterpart, with the former up nearly 18% for the year compared to the latter's 7%. The Russell 2000, though improved, still lagged significantly behind, highlighting the ongoing performance gap.

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    1 hr and 22 mins
  • AI’s Impact on the Markets, Q2 Reflections, & 5 Things Every Portfolio Should Have
    Jun 29 2024

    The Money Wise guys are back in the studio and kicking off this week’s episode with an update on the financial markets for the week, year-to-date, and the second quarter of 2024. For the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 0.2%, the S&P 500 was up 0.1%, and the NASDAQ led the pack, rising 0.7%. Looking at the year-to-date performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.7%, the S&P 500 has increased by 14.7%, and the NASDAQ is up 18.7%. For the second quarter of 2024, the Dow Jones saw a decline of 1.73%, while the S&P 500 grew by 3.92%, and the NASDAQ once again led with an impressive 8.26% increase. The guys highlight the significant contribution of tech and AI-related stocks to the S&P 500's performance, noting that NVIDIA alone accounted for more than 30% of the S&P 500's return year-to-date. They also emphasize the importance of a balanced portfolio and mention that despite NVIDIA's 150% rise and Microsoft's 19.97% increase, Apple has lagged with a 10.6% gain.

    The discussion moves on to the concentration of returns in a few key stocks, similar to the "magnificent seven" in 2023. This year, companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA, and Microsoft are driving returns, especially those involved in AI hardware. The Money Wise guys mention recent portfolio adjustments, including taking profits from AI hardware stocks like NVIDIA and Broadcom, and reallocating towards AI software companies such as Salesforce and ServiceNow, which have shown negative performance year-to-date, offering attractive valuations for long-term investments. As the market enters the second half of 2024, they question whether there will be a broader market participation beyond the few leading stocks, which have been trading below their moving averages.

    AI’s Impact on the Markets

    AI has significantly impacted the markets by driving substantial growth, particularly in the technology sector. Companies involved in AI development, such as NVIDIA, have seen remarkable stock price increases, contributing disproportionately to the overall market performance. This concentration of returns has made tech and AI stocks key drivers of major indexes like the S&P 500. As investors recognize the transformative potential of AI, both hardware and software companies in this space have attracted significant attention and investment, highlighting AI's critical role in shaping market trends and influencing investment strategies.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys share 5 Things Every Portfolio Should Have. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 21 mins
  • Tech Sector Dominance, Apple’s Resurgence, & Retiree Spending Rules
    Jun 15 2024

    In this episode of Money Wise, the Money Wise guys discuss the market performance for the past week, highlighting a 250-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, offset by gains in the S&P 500, up 85 points, and the NASDAQ, up 556 points, driven largely by tech sector strength. They note the NASDAQ reached a new all-time high, fueled by outstanding earnings from tech giants like Nvidia and Broadcom. The episode also explores Apple's resurgence, boosted by innovative advancements and a new partnership with ChatGPT, despite Elon Musk's reservations. Overall, tech dominance and strategic investments characterize the current market landscape.

    Tech Sector Dominance

    During the episode, the dominance of the technology sector was prominently featured, with Nvidia standing out for its monumental post-split gains and strong earnings, driving the NASDAQ to all-time highs. Apple also regained momentum, rebounding from earlier declines with strategic innovations like its partnership with ChatGPT for AI integration in upcoming iPhone models, potentially revitalizing sales. These successes underscored tech's pivotal role in market performance, influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics amid broader economic uncertainties. The sector's resilience and innovation were highlighted as key factors shaping market optimism and investor behavior, reflecting ongoing confidence in tech's ability to drive growth and navigate sector rotations effectively.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys share Retiree Spending Rules. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 19 mins
  • Investor Sentiment, Market Participation, & Equity Index Annuities
    Jun 11 2024

    The Money Wise guys kick off this newest episode with an update on the stock market's performance, highlighting a modest upward trend for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an increase of about 113 points or 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose by approximately 69 points or 1.3%, and the NASDAQ gained around 398 points or 2.4%. Despite these gains, year-to-date figures show more substantial growth, with the Dow up by 2.9%, the S&P by 12.1%, and the NASDAQ by 14.1%. The discussion then shifts to market dynamics observed during the week, particularly focusing on the employment report and various economic data releases. The absence of Federal Reserve commentary, due to their quiet period, left the markets relatively undisturbed, allowing for some gains. The Money Wise guys delve into the erratic behavior observed in different industrial sectors, noting rapid shifts in investment focus from one sector to another on a daily basis, a phenomenon they attribute to trading rather than long-term investment strategy.

    The episode also touches on the broader context of market participants, suggesting that while traders are actively shifting positions, serious long-term investors seem comfortable with their current allocations. This dynamic results in a market that appears to be waiting for a clearer direction, possibly influenced by future economic indicators or political events. The conversation concludes with a critical look at media coverage of market anomalies like GameStop, reflecting on the speculative nature of such coverage and its impact on investor behavior.

    Investor Sentiment and Market Participation

    A significant theme discussed was the current state of investor sentiment and market participation. The hosts observed that while the active traders are highly involved in these daily fluctuations, serious long-term investors are largely staying put with their existing allocations. This situation reflects a broader sentiment of waiting and watching, with many investors looking for more definitive signals—such as political resolutions or changes in monetary policy—before making substantial new commitments to the market.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss Equity Index Annuities. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 21 mins
  • Unpredictability in the Market, Unknown Factors, & The Best Investment Advice Ever
    Jun 1 2024

    As always, we kick off this week’s episode with a review of the latest performance of major stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 383 points or 1%, the S&P 500 slightly dipped by 27 points or about 0.5%, and the NASDAQ decreased by 186 points or 1.1%. Despite these weekly losses, the year-to-date figures remain positive, with the Dow up by 2.6%, the S&P 500 by 10.6%, and the NASDAQ by 11.5%. May concluded with notable gains for all indices compared to the losses in April, indicating a rebound with the NASDAQ leading the recovery. The Money Wise guys discuss the market's recent unpredictability, marked by rapid shifts without clear reasons, highlighted by the dramatic surge in buying on the last Friday of the month despite a generally downward trend. This surge occurred without significant news, leading to speculation about potential causes such as massive hedge fund rebalances or significant market entries from sidelined funds. The conversation also touched on the lack of impactful news from recent economic data releases, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) numbers, which aligned with expectations but did not significantly influence market movements until the last half-hour of trading on Friday. The guys speculate about the factors driving the sudden uptick in buying volume, which was the highest of the year, and considers the possibilities of what might be revealed the following Monday about these unusual market activities.

    Unknown Factors Influencing the Markets

    The sudden surge in the market, occurring without significant news, has led to widespread speculation about the underlying causes. Such unexpected movements often point to less visible, yet impactful factors like massive hedge fund rebalances or significant market entries from funds that had previously been on the sidelines. Hedge funds, managing large pools of capital, can cause substantial market shifts when they decide to rebalance their portfolios, especially if many funds make similar moves simultaneously due to changes in market outlook or risk assessments. Additionally, when large sums of money that had been withheld from the market are suddenly injected, this can also lead to significant fluctuations. These injections could come from institutional investors or retail holders who decide that the market conditions have become favorable enough to warrant re-entry. This confluence of hidden activities, often not immediately apparent to the average investor, underscores the complexity and unpredictable nature of financial markets.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys share The Best Investment Advice Ever. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 21 mins
  • Fluctuations in the Market, The Upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures Index & The 10 Myths of Retirement Planning
    May 25 2024

    In this week's episode of Money Wise, Jeff reports mixed performances among the major stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop of 934 points, or 2.3%, while the NASDAQ gained 235 points, or 1.4%, and the S&P 500 remained nearly flat. Despite these fluctuations, year-to-date figures show the Dow up by 3.7%, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 achieving increases of 12.7% and 11.2%, respectively. The conversation delves into factors impacting the market, particularly focusing on major companies like Boeing and McDonald's, which contributed to the Dow's downturn due to specific operational and profit challenges. Additionally, despite excellent earnings from Nvidia that boosted the NASDAQ, the broader market exhibits signs of consolidation and uncertainty, reflected in trading volumes below the average and a general lack of conviction among investors.

    Discussion also touched on the Federal Reserve's recent sentiments from meeting minutes, suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to insufficient evidence of sustained inflation deceleration. This "higher for longer" interest rate scenario is causing investors to remain on the sidelines, content with safer returns from money market funds despite notable gains in sectors like technology. Looking ahead, the Money Wise guys emphasized the importance of upcoming economic reports, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and speculated on the potential for a strong year-end market performance if May closes with significant gains, citing historical trends that suggest a high probability of continued upward movement.

    Fluctuations in the Market

    Market fluctuations are a common feature of the investing landscape, driven by myriad factors ranging from economic data and corporate earnings to geopolitical events and market sentiment. As an investor, It's important to remember that such volatility is part and parcel of the investment process and adopting a long-term perspective is key to navigating these ups and downs effectively. Reacting emotionally to short-term market movements can lead to rash decisions, potentially derailing well-thought-out investment strategies. Instead, try maintaining a focus on your long-term financial goals, adhering to a diversified investment plan, and adjusting your portfolios in alignment with systematic, thoughtful analysis rather than momentary fears or euphoria, as this usually yields better results. This approach helps both in weathering periodic market turbulence and capitalizing on the opportunities that volatility can offer.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss the 10 Myths of Retirement Planning. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 21 mins
  • Economic Reports Impact on the Markets, A Cooling of Inflation, & Are You Ready for Retirement Quiz
    May 18 2024

    In this week's episode, the Money Wise guys provide a positive update on the recent performance of major stock indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 491 points or 1.2%, the S&P 500 increasing by 81 points or 1.5%, and the NASDAQ rising by 345 points or 2.1%. Year-to-date figures show substantial gains, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ up by 11.2%. They also delve into recent economic reports that have influenced market sentiment, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The CPI for the month was reported to increase by 0.3%, which was below the expected 0.4%, signaling a slight cooling of inflation, a positive signal for the markets. This was further supported by a downward revision in the previous month's PPI, which also had a calming effect on the market's inflation concerns. These developments contributed to all three major indices reaching all-time highs during the week, with the Dow closing above 40,000 for the first time on Friday. Looking ahead, the Money Wise guys discuss the potential impact of upcoming earnings from major tech companies like Nvidia, emphasizing the importance of their financial results in sustaining market momentum. They noted that continued positive earnings, particularly from leading tech firms, could further bolster investor confidence and drive market performance as the year progresses.

    The Cooling of Inflation

    The cooling of inflation, as indicated by recent lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, is generally positive for the markets for several reasons. Firstly, it alleviates concerns about the rising cost of living and the potential for eroded consumer purchasing power, which can stifle economic growth. Lower inflation also reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, which is favorable for investment prices as higher interest rates typically lead to lower stock valuations. Furthermore, with less inflationary pressure, businesses face lower input costs, potentially leading to improved profit margins. Overall, a cooling of inflation fosters a more stable financial environment, encouraging investment and contributing to the overall health of the stock market.

    In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys share their ‘Are You Ready for Retirement’ quiz. You don’t want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

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    1 hr and 21 mins