Friday 14th November 2025

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NAB’s biennial Super Insights Survey was published this week, co-authored by Morning Call regulars Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril. They join Phil on this week’s podcast to talk about it, alongside Mike Symonds, the director of NAB’s Currency Overlay Solutions Group.

One key takeout of the survey is that Australian super funds now invest more overseas than they do domestically and that ratio will increase over time. On the podcast we look at where that money is going, and the impact President Trump’s agenda has had. What are the key thematics that are influencing investment decisions? How much are funds hedging back to the Australian dollar, and how do they manage liquidity in these turbulent times?

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Thursday 20th November 2025

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What do equity markets want? NVIDIA yesterday delivered strong earnings and talked up the opportunity. ‘We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI’, their CEO said yesterday. After some initial enthusiasm, US shares fell today, including a 1.5% drop in NVIDIA’s price. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the caution in equities as well as deciphering a mix of jobs data, including the not-so-monthly on-farm payrolls, and a dump of weekly jobless claims. However you decipher those numbers it seems markets are increasingly expecting no move form the Fed in December. Today is PMIs day - a chance to see the comparative strengths of the US, Europe and UK.

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Thursday 20th November 2025

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Nothing seems to be quite hitting the spot. Our podcast is too early today to bring you the NVIDIA earnings results, which have left equities in no man’s land this week. We did get a chance to glimpse the latest Fed minutes before we hit the stop button though.

The other news this morning is that the November non-farm payrolls number will be delayed, meaning there will be no other report beyond September’s delayed release tonight, ahead of the December meeting. The data is just too late, and the Fed continues to fly blind.

And oil prices have fallen over fears there’s too much oil. A resolution to the Russia Ukraine conflict, which is again making headlines, could add to that downward pressure.

NAB’s Gavin Friend in London joins Phil to talk through all of this, plus UK inflation and Australian wages data.

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Wednesday 19th November 2025

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Markets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment.

We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.

The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers.

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Monday 17th November 2025

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President Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.

Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.

Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday.

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Friday 14th November 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.

Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending?

Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore.

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Friday14th November 2025

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Sally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.

Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties.

Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China.

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