Friday 27th March 2026

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In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community.

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Friday 27th March 2026

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Geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment as a five-day extension to President Trump’s ultimatum fails to produce a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran officially rejecting US peace proposals. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to analyse the resulting market volatility, including a rise in Brent crude up to $108, The pair discusses the "fear gauge" (VIX) currently sitting below 30 and what this indicates about market expectations for a potentially prolonged conflict and discuss why central banks like the Norges Bank are already pivoting toward a more hawkish stance as global inflation forecasts are revised upward.

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Thursday 26th March 2026

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The path to de-escalation in the Middle East remains stalled as Tehran rejects the latest US peace proposal, issuing counter-demands that include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations. Phil talks with NAB’s Taylor Nugent on the market’s reaction to this diplomatic deadlock, noting that while oil prices saw a temporary dip, the prospect of a protracted war continues to drive bond yields higher. There were hawkish tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who warned that the central bank "will not be paralyzed by hesitation" in responding to inflationary shocks. Domestically, the focus is on the latest Australian CPI data for February, which showed headline inflation easing slightly to 3.7% and trimmed mean inflation holding steady at 3.3%. These numbers will likely be eclipsed by the massive surge in fuel prices expected to hit the March print.

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Wednesday 23rd March 2026

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East enter a dangerous new phase as the US deploys 3,000 troops and Iran launches fresh attacks across the region, sending Brent crude climbing toward $104 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore how central banks are moving away from "looking through" temporary shocks toward bracing for the secondary, inflationary impacts of a protracted war. They analyze the sharp rise in bond yields and the sobering reality reflected in the latest global PMI data, which shows surging input prices and weakening consumer confidence in Europe and the US. The discussion also covers Australia’s upcoming CPI data and the finalization of the Australia-EU trade deal, somewhat overshadowed by the escalating conflict.

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Tueday 22nd March 2026

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Phil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if we’re seeing a TACO trade as President Trump pushes back his 48-hour ultimatum by five days, citing productive talks with Iran that the Iranians claim aren't even happening. This glimmer of a potential off-ramp has seen oil prices tumble nearly 10% and US equities rally. Bond yields have also fallen but remain somewhat elevated on the assumption central banks will continue to adopt a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflation risks. Also, anecdotal evidence of the impact of surging input costs on business confidence, and what to expect from today’s critical global PMI data and Japanese CPI figures.

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Monday 21st March 2026

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Geopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point as a high-stakes deadline looms for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face the "obliteration" of its power plants by the US. Phil talks with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to analyse a volatile Friday session where markets—already reeling from earlier energy infrastructure attacks—saw Brent crude surge past $112 a barrel and bond yields spike globally. Crucially, these major moves occurred ahead of the weekend's direct ultimatum, meaning investors have yet to fully price in the prospect of a significant escalation. Australian CPI is out this week, along with global PMIs. The focus today, though, is on whether President Trump will carry through with his threats.

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Friday 20th March 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs.

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Friday 20th March 2026

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Retaliatory attacks on Qatari gas facilities have sent energy prices soaring, with Brent crude momentarily almost return to $120 a barrel and European benchmark gas prices jumping as much as 30%. In this environment of heightened inflation risk, Phil talks with NAB’s Ray Attrill to examine the sharp rise in global bond yields, specifically a 40-basis-point spike in UK 2-year gilts following the Bank of England’s surprisingly hawkish stance. Ray also provides a deep dive into the latest Australian labour force survey, where a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% was offset by a surge in participation. Highlighting the resilience of the market, Ray notes, "Although the unemployment rate rose... employment growth was strong", keeping the labour market tighter than the RBA’s target for full employment and likely deterring any shift away from its restrictive policy.

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