Monday 20th April 2026

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There were strong risk-on moves on Friday on the news that the Hormuz Strait had reopened. Since then, Iran has fired on vessels, and the Straits have closed again. But new talks are on the horizon if, as NAB’s Sally Auld puts it, they show up. The ceasefire officially ends Wednesday but markets aren’t pricing for President Trump’s threat to take out all energy plants and bridges Sally talks about how central banks are viewing the conflict and looks ahead to today’s CPI for Canada.

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Friday 17th April 2026

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, veteran macroeconomist Phil Suttle joins Phil Dobbie to dissect the "unbridled enthusiasm" of global markets as they seemingly look past a U.S. naval blockade and a precarious energy crisis to push the S&P 500 to new record highs. Suttle warns of a stark internal divergence within the U.S. economy, where a concentrated investment boom in AI and tech masks the reality of flat real disposable income for the average household. The conversation traverses the globe, examining the strategic "payoff" of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the structural hurdles stifling European productivity. Central to the discussion is the "Mike Tyson" moment for central bankers—dealing with the reality of being "hit in the mouth" by supply shocks—as they weigh the necessity of "nipping inflation in the bud" against a world transitioning from "just-in-time" efficiency to a high-cost era of building buffers and resilience.

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Friday 17th April 2026

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There are mixed messages about where the war in Iran is heading. President Trump says a deal is close and that Iran has agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, whilst Arab and European leaders believe it could take six months to reach a deal, hence yesterday’s Beige Book suggested companies were pursuing a wait and see strategy, holding off on major investments. Yet the Philly Fed manufacturing index overnight surged to 26.7 and initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 207,000. China’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, despite weaker activity data for March, and there was an upward revision to Eurozone inflation. Again, mixed messages.

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Thursday 16th April 2026

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Sally Auld talks about how global markets appear to be "buying time" as investors increasingly price out the immediate threat of a wider Middle East conflict. Following news of an extended ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks, the S&P 500 hit a new record high, underpinned by a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing AI-driven tech momentum. While the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern, there seems to be a shift back to domestic fundamentals in the US, including solid Q1 bank earnings. Locally, the focus is squarely on today's Australian Labour Force release, expected to show continued resilience with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

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Wednesday 15th April 2026

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The hope of more peace talks between the US and Iran provided a temporary reprieve, sending the NASDAQ higher and Brent crude down toward $95 a barrel. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this and how the fragile situation is reflected in the latest NAB Business Survey, which saw a sharp fall in confidence and the IMF's updated global growth scenarios, which suggest the world economy is already tracking toward an "adverse" outcome due to sustained energy price volatility.

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Tuesday 14th April 2026

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While you'd expect chaos, NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that markets actually moved towards the end of the session on a positive note, spurred on by President Trump’s claims that Iranian officials are reaching out to talk peace—even if we should take that with a healthy pinch of salt. He talks to Phil about the "yo-yo" effect on the Aussie dollar, which touched 71 US cents as sentiment shifted, and the continued volatility in oil, with Brent and WTI both climbing despite staying under the $100 mark for now. They also dive into the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on rate hikes and a sobering warning from the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey regarding the growing threats to global financial stability from the Middle East conflict.

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Friday 10th April 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the "stalemate" in the Middle East after ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without resolution. The breakdown has led to a further escalation, with President Trump announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran warns that any military approach to the waterway will be considered a breach of the standing agreement. It’s ecpcted markets will show signs of reversal from last week's brief optimism. They also discuss a jump in U.S. CPI driven by surging gasoline prices and an end to China’s deflationary PPI.

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Friday 10th April 2026

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Phil is joined by James Bentley (Director of Sustainable Finance at NAB) and Richard Lovell (Head of Debt Markets at CEFC) to discuss how current geopolitical instability and energy price volatility are accelerating the business case for net-zero technologies. The conversation highlights the strategic partnership between NAB and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which provides significant interest rate discounts—up to 115 basis points for on-farm emissions reduction projects—to help SMEs and farmers overcome the high upfront costs of green equipment. From large-scale green hydrogen fertilizer projects to the adoption of "no-till" farming and battery-powered construction cranes, the guests explain how these investments are shifting from environmental ideals to essential tools for operational resilience and long-term cost management.

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