Episodes

  • The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell

    The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell
    Aug 12 2024
    In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy! -- Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Market Volatility Overview (04:51) Magnificent Seven Concentration (06:24) Dispersion Trades (10:49) Market Risks & Correlations (14:09) Mantra Ad (15:15) The Carry Trade (18:14) Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy (23:44) Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets (31:25) Permissionless Ad (32:04) Artificial Intelligence And Alex's Startup Rose AI (34:54) Collecting & Using Market Data (39:44) The Future Of Finance (43:46) Future Of The AI Industry (46:20) Alex's Thoughts On Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    50 mins
  • Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup

    Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup
    Aug 10 2024
    This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind 07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events 12:23 Polkadot Ad 13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility 18:39 Assessing Liquitidy Signals 21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts? 23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads 26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument 42:30 Permissionless Ad 43:10 State Of The Labor Market 45:38 Where Is Economic Growth? 50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way? 55:18 Crypto Market Overview 01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes 01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 hr and 14 mins
  • Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm

    Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm
    Aug 7 2024
    In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy! -- Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:13) What is the Sahm Rule? (06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered (08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule (10:20) Are We in a Recession? (14:05) Mantra Ad (15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule (18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession (21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0 (22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule (24:35) July Unemployment Report (32:10) Permissionless Ad (32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market (38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates? (40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    46 mins
  • Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup

    Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup
    Aug 2 2024
    This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:28) QRA & FOMC Takeaways (16:07) Why Are Markets Unwinding? (23:51) The Yen Carry Trade Unwind (26:11) Permissionless Ad (26:50) What's Happening In Crypto? (31:13) Coinbase Earnings (35:39) Tether Earnings -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    48 mins
  • The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan

    The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
    Aug 1 2024
    In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy! -- Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) FOMC Takeaway's (03:24) The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates? (11:03) Mantra Ad (12:10) Why Is This Economic Cycle Different? (17:56) QRA & The QT Impact (22:08) What's The Trade? (28:27) Permissionless Ad (29:05) Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind (37:51) What's Next For Markets? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    43 mins
  • Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup

    Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup
    Jul 27 2024
    This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 hr and 2 mins
  • The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance | Lyn Alden

    The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance | Lyn Alden
    Jul 24 2024
    In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance & it's impact on markets in H2 2024 & beyond. We then deep dive into Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the election impact, what asset classes should perform well over the next 3-6 months & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:49) The Rate Cutting Cycle (05:09) Is The Economy Slowing? (08:51) Will We See A Recession? (11:02) The Small Cap Rotation (13:34) Mantra Ad (14:43) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance (18:12) The Election Impact (21:34) Bitcoin As A Strategic Reserve Asset (33:13) Permissionless Ad (33:54) Oil & Energy (42:05) Stocks, Bonds & The Three Pillar Portfolio -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    49 mins
  • The Stock Market & Crypto Are Turning | Weekly Roundup

    The Stock Market & Crypto Are Turning | Weekly Roundup
    Jul 20 2024
    This week we discuss what is happening in crypto & traditional markets. With rate cut expectations building, are we on the verge of a massive small cap rotation? We then deep dive into the dispersion trade unwind, is crypto about to catch up to the momentum in traditional markets, the U.S election impact & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 hr and 6 mins