The Last Trade: On-chain analyst James Check (Checkmate) joins the crew to break down bitcoin's bear market capitulation, what the data says about where we are in the cycle, and why the obituaries being out might be the most bullish signal of all.

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🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.

👉 Inheritance & Trust Planning: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/inheritance

👉 Institutional: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/institutional

👉 Business: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/business

📩 Schedule a briefing: https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact

James Check on X: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

Check on Chain: https://www.checkonchain.com/

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Bitcoin is down 50% from all-time highs. No single catalyst. No obvious bottom. Checkmate joins the crew to cut through the noise with on-chain data, walking through the exact thresholds he mapped during the recent drawdown and why 50% of the supply being underwater is historically a bottoming signal. The conversation expands into the debasement trade narrative, AI-driven labor displacement, why institutions only need to move a fraction of a percentage point to absorb all sell pressure, and why bitcoin's only job — like gold's — is to not die.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 — Intro & Market Sentiment

02:14 — How James Mapped the Recent Decline

11:32 — What Actually Caused the Drawdown?

15:16 — The Debasement Trade Hasn't Started Yet

22:00 — Gold, Physical Delivery & What It Means for BTC

30:39 — AI, Labor Displacement & Money Printing

44:00 — Institutional Adoption: Just Heating Up

50:00 — Will Critics Ever Admit They Were Wrong?

54:53 — Bitcoin's Only Job Is to Not Die

1:00:04 — Hyperbitcoinization & Why Most People Won't Care

1:07:11 — Deep Value Zone: Every Mean Reversion Model Agrees

1:12:00 — Buy the Whole Bottom, Outro & Disclaimer

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Get Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:

High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research

Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

The Last Trade: Onramp COO Nick Delosier joins the crew to break down bitcoin's mysterious 50% drawdown, record-high global uncertainty, the stablecoin Trojan horse thesis, and what's next for multi-institution custody.

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🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.

👉 Inheritance & Trust Planning: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/inheritance

👉 Institutional: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/institutional

👉 Business: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/business

📩 Schedule a briefing: https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact

The Architecture of Trust: https://onrampbitcoin.com/research/the-architecture-of-trust

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Bitcoin is down 50% from all-time highs and there's no single catalyst anyone can point to. Global uncertainty has broken all-time highs — surpassing 9/11, 2008, and COVID. The crew is joined by Onramp COO Nick Delosier for a wide-ranging conversation on what's driving the drawdown, why the four-year cycle may be self-fulfilling, and how quantum computing fear is being overblown but shouldn't be ignored.

The conversation shifts to key takeaways from Bitcoin Investor Week, including Tether US CEO Bo Hines' bullish case for the Clarity Act and stablecoins as the ultimate Trojan horse for bitcoin adoption. Nick then walks through "The Architecture of Trust" — Onramp's latest publication detailing the engineering breakthroughs behind their self-service onboarding, redesigned dashboard, and security-first withdrawal workflows. The team also discusses dynasty trusts, the evolving AI threat landscape, and the road to mass-market bitcoin custody.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 — Intro & Market Sentiment Overview

04:30 — Gold, Bitcoin & the Centralization Problem

08:10 — Coinbase Goes Down Again & the 50% Drawdown

17:42 — Bitcoin Investor Week: Behind Closed Doors

22:23 — Quantum Computing: Real Risk or Overblown FUD?

33:50 — Bo Hines on the Clarity Act, Stablecoins & Tether's Scale

40:03 — Stablecoins as a Trojan Horse for Bitcoin Adoption

44:06 — The Architecture of Trust: Onramp's Product Evolution

54:03 — Dynasty Trusts, Lending & the Custody Roadmap

1:02:50 — Shipping MacBooks: Crossing the Custody Chasm

1:06:00 — Closing Thoughts, Custody FAQ & Disclaimers

💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead

Get Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:

High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research

Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with Onramp

Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.

00:00 - Introduction and Context Setting

02:13 - Market Sentiment and Price Action

07:12 - Tether's Position and Strategic Moves

13:12 - Erebor's National Banking Charter and Industry Implications

27:39 - The Future of Banking and Digital Assets

30:16 - APIs and the Evolution of Financial Services

33:15 - Stablecoins and the Acceleration of Crypto Adoption

35:23 - The Transformation of Financial Services through Digital Assets

39:00 - Tokenized Cash and the Role of CME Coin

43:59 - The Rise of AI Bots in Financial Transactions

47:58 - Bitcoin vs. Stablecoins: The Future of Digital Currency

51:02 - Decentralized Infrastructure and the Future of Tokenomics

If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.

Links discussed:

https://www.theblock.co/post/388540/cme-group-tokenized-cash-coin-developed-google-use-crypto-collateral-roll-out-this-year

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-escape-velocity-raises-62-130000621.html

https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2019056067930477043?s=20

https://x.com/tether/status/2019520461302804919?s=20

https://x.com/TFTC21/status/2019826399641846125?s=20

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pave-bank-secures-39m-funding-163111664.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palmer-luckey-backed-erebor-receives-225304165.html

https://www.anchorage.com/insights/anchorage-digital-tether-introduce-usat

https://tether.io/news/tether-announces-100-million-strategic-equity-investment-in-anchorage-digital/

https://archive.ph/odfMv#selection-1577.0-1577.68

Keep up with Michael:

https://x.com/MTanguma

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/

Keep up with Brian:

https://x.com/BackslashBTC

https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/

Keep up with Liam:

https://x.com/Lnelson_21

https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/

In Episode 23 of The ₿roadcast, Bram Kanstein, Brian Cubellis, and Michael Tanguma break down the most important Bitcoin and macro developments from the past few weeks.

00:00 - The Believers Are Being Tested

06:28 - A Silent Clock Ticking in the Background

17:25 - 90% of ETF Capital Hasn't Moved

28:44 - The DAT Reckoning

41:18 - Why Hasn't Burry Figured It Out?

53:24 - Bitcoin Is a 10x Over Gold

58:42 - Volatility Is Not Tail Risk

1:05:51 - Paper Bitcoin Has Less Wiggle Room

1:13:52 - Crypto Is Unraveling

1:22:56 - Fundamentals Up, Price Down

The ₿roadcast: Bitcoin culture meets Business & Finance. We catch up LIVE on news, tweets, videos, charts, trends, and other Bitcoin related content that stood out to us in the past two weeks ⚡️ Published on Saturday at 9AM EST / 3PM CET.

The Last Trade: Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg breaks down bitcoin's brutal drawdown, why 94% of ETF investors aren't selling, the "silent IPO" of OG holders, and the macro case for what comes next.

---

🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.

⁠UPCOMING WEBINAR⁠

👉 Inheritance & Trust Planning: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/inheritance

👉 Institutional: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/institutional

👉 Business: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/business

📩 Schedule a briefing: https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact

Eric Balchunas on X: https://x.com/EricBalchunas

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Eric Balchunas returns to The Last Trade to put bitcoin's 45% drawdown in perspective. Drawing on his deep expertise in ETF flows and investor behavior, Eric makes the case that this correction — while painful — is completely normal. With 94% of bitcoin ETF assets still intact and the fundamental debasement thesis unchanged, the real story may be less about what's going wrong and more about the price investors pay for outsized long-term returns.

The conversation covers the "silent IPO" of OG holders taking profits, why ETF investors are the smart money in this cycle, the Kevin Warsh Fed chair implications, and why short-term narratives drawn from a year of data are "so dumb." Eric also shares what's exciting him in the broader ETF space — including the race to get SpaceX and other private companies into exchange-traded wrappers.

🧠 Chapters

02:07 — Intro & Welcome Back Eric Balchunas

04:16 — "Bitcoin Is Rocky Balboa" & Contextualizing Drawdowns

10:18 — Volatility Is the Cost of Admission

13:30 — The Silent IPO: OGs Selling & Why That's OK

23:41 — Kevin Warsh, the Fed & the Trump Put

34:58 — Understanding the Problem to Understand Bitcoin

38:59 — Why 94% of ETF Investors Aren't Selling

45:41 — Value Investing Wisdom & Human Psychology

49:51 — Crypto Contagion, Tokenization & Bitcoin's Separate Lane

55:35 — Vanguard vs. BlackRock & the Race for Private Markets

1:06:00 — Closing Thoughts, Outro & Disclaimer

💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead

Get Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:

High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research

Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with Onramp

Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.

02:10 - The Bitcoin Paradox: Everything We Wanted Except Price

11:32 - The Stablecoin Legislation Battle

21:05 - Elon Musk & The Singularity Prediction

27:16 - Why Washington Only Wants to Talk Stablecoins

36:42 - "SaaS Is Dead" - The AI Disruption of Software

44:43 - The Purpose Economy: Finding Fulfillment Beyond Work

52:49 - Compressing Innovation Cycles

57:48 - The Ticking Clock on Monetizing Ones and Zeros

1:09:12 - Bitcoin as the "Leash" on AI: The Yin and Yang Thesis

1:12:29 - SpatialGen & The Future of Virtual Experiences

If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.

Keep up with Cam Doody:

https://x.com/camdoody

https://www.linkedin.com/in/cam-doody-b489a124/

https://www.justlaybrick.com/

Keep up with Michael:

https://x.com/MTanguma

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/

Keep up with Brian:

https://x.com/BackslashBTC

https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/

Keep up with Liam:

https://x.com/Lnelson_21

https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/

The Last Trade: Gold and silver surge while bitcoin stalls — Mel Mattison unpacks the macro divergence, the Clarity Act's failure, and why the fundamental case for non-USD assets is only getting stronger.

---

🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.

👉 Inheritance & Trust Planning: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/inheritance

👉 Institutional: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/institutional

👉 Business: https://onrampbitcoin.com/products/business

📩 Schedule a briefing: https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact

UPCOMING WEBINAR: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1517685004120/WN_yC29RjYoQsq6KyjyYH4ouA

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Mel Mattison returns to explain why bitcoin hasn't participated in the broader rally in non-USD assets — even as gold hits all-time highs and emerging markets outperform. Rather than abandoning his thesis, Mel frames bitcoin as being in its "puberty stage," with uneven growth before reaching adult stability.

The conversation unpacks the real reason the Clarity Act failed: stablecoins with yield threaten the banking system's core business model. We explore the sovereign debt picture, why Europe may be the real powder keg, and how the Fed will eventually be forced to expand its balance sheet as traditional treasury buyers exit.

We close on potential upside surprises — including Trump's possible use of Defense Department vehicles to buy bitcoin — and why deflationary forces from AI and demographics may thread the needle between debasement and collapse.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 — 2026 Market Recap & Why Bitcoin Is Stalling

09:29 — Bitcoin's "Puberty Stage" & Investor Base Turnover

24:55 — Emerging Markets, Gold & Non-USD Assets Winning

35:00 — The Clarity Act, Banks & the Inflation Tax

50:23 — Europe as the Powder Keg & Sovereign Debt Risks

58:06 — AI, Demographics & the Permanent Underclass

💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead

Get Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:

High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research

Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets