• “Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, and ‘Cope’” by Raemon

  • Jul 19 2024
  • Duración: 13 m
  • Podcast

“Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, and ‘Cope’” by Raemon Por arte de portada

“Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, and ‘Cope’” by Raemon

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  • Resumen

  • Eliezer Yudkowsky periodically complains about people coming up with questionable plans with questionable assumptions to deal with AI, and then either:

    • Saying "well, if this assumption doesn't hold, we're doomed, so we might as well assume it's true."
    • Worse: coming up with cope-y reasons to assume that the assumption isn't even questionable at all. It's just a pretty reasonable worldview.
    Sometimes the questionable plan is "an alignment scheme, which Eliezer thinks avoids the hard part of the problem." Sometimes it's a sketchy reckless plan that's probably going to blow up and make things worse.

    Some people complain about Eliezer being a doomy Negative Nancy who's overly pessimistic.

    I had an interesting experience a few months ago when I ran some beta-tests of my Planmaking and Surprise Anticipation workshop, that I think are illustrative.

    i. Slipping into a more Convenient World

    I have an exercise where I give people [...]

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    Outline:

    (00:59) i. Slipping into a more Convenient World

    (04:26) ii. Finding traction in the wrong direction.

    (06:47) Takeaways

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    First published:
    July 17th, 2024

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ZR3xsWb6TdvmL8kx/optimistic-assumptions-longterm-planning-and-cope

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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