In The Intersection of Science Fiction and Reality episode of The Flux podcast, host John Cordier engages in a conversation with Sam Harbisman, Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital and Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. They explore how science fiction, video games, and computational social science intersect to influence real-world innovations.

Harbisman shares how early experiences like playing SimCity and reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy sparked his interest in complexity science and computational modeling. They discuss the concept of psychohistory from Foundation, and how it inspired modern computational social science to analyze societal behaviors on a large scale.

They also touch on how venture capital plays a role in transforming science fiction ideas into reality, with Lux Capital supporting innovations that blur the lines between science fact and fiction. Harbisman reflects on the increasing complexity of technological systems, emphasizing how understanding these systems requires new tools and thinking, akin to studying biological systems.

Ultimately, this episode highlights the value of scenario planning, counterfactuals, and complexity science in decision-making and innovation, making a compelling case for the importance of these methodologies in navigating an uncertain future.

'Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 Meet Sam Harbisman

01:00 Sam's Journey into Complex Systems

01:34 The Influence of SimCity and Science Fiction

03:03 The Foundation Trilogy and Psychohistory

07:01 Science Fiction's Real-World Impact

13:08 The Role of Venture Capital in Innovation

14:19 The Future of Deep Tech and Emerging Technologies

19:12 The Importance of Counterfactuals and Scenario Planning

30:20 Encouraging Complexity Science Education

35:44 The Future of Simulation and Computational Science

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Matt Kohler, Applied Complexity Scientist at MITRE and President of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, about the transformative power of agent-based modeling (ABM). Kohler explains how ABM simulates complex human systems and helps decision-makers understand the ripple effects of their choices. From anthropology to economics, Kohler shares examples of how ABM is helping scientists and leaders explore new insights.

As technological advancements in data, hardware, and software drive ABM to new heights, Kohler discusses its expanding role in solving real-world challenges, from traffic modeling to financial crises. With its potential to revolutionize industries by providing a clearer view of how complex systems evolve, ABM is poised to become an indispensable tool for policy-makers, researchers, and organizations.

This episode is for anyone interested in the intersection of complexity science and decision-making, and how ABM is shaping the future of predictive modeling.

Timestamps:

01:00 Matt Kohler's Flux Moment

03:17 Agent-Based Modeling Insights

05:13 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling

08:56 Challenges and Successes in Agent-Based Modeling

23:41 Economic Theories and Agent-Based Modeling

26:58 Getting Started with Agent-Based Modeling

29:10 Future of Computational Social Science

In the inaugural episode of The Flux, John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, interviews Josh Epstein, Director of the Agent-Based Modeling Lab at NYU and a prominent figure at the Santa Fe Institute. The discussion revolves around the potential and progress of agent-based modeling (ABM), particularly in public health, economics, and beyond.

Epstein shares insights into how ABM creates simulations of artificial societies to generate real-world patterns like epidemics or wealth distributions. He highlights the generative explanatory standard, which uses individual agent behaviors to explain macroscopic phenomena, contrasting it with traditional models that assume rational actors. Epstein introduces Agent Zero, a framework offering an alternative to the rational actor model by incorporating emotional, cognitive, and social elements into agent behavior. His work emphasizes the need for cognitively plausible agents in simulations, moving beyond simplified assumptions in fields like epidemiology and economics.

This episode underscores the transformative potential of ABM in areas such as public policy, disease modeling, and economic forecasting, stressing the importance of integrating human behavior into models to improve decision-making. Epstein envisions ABM becoming a core tool in tackling complex, real-world problems, with the field poised for continued growth as computational power advances.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast
00:23 Meet Josh Epstein: Pioneer in Agent-Based Modeling
02:32 Exploring Agent-Based Models
04:59 Generative Social Science and Agent Zero
07:31 Inverse Generative Social Science
15:58 Behavioral Dynamics in Epidemiology
19:00 Leadership and Decision Making in Modeling
19:33 Future of Agent-Based Modeling
20:35 Global Adoption of Agent-Based Models
22:34 Visualization and Pandemic Modeling
33:46 Why Model?
37:34 Optimism for the Future