Episodes

  • A Contrarian Macro Thesis

    A Contrarian Macro Thesis
    Apr 26 2024
    US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!
    Show more Show less
    38 mins
  • What if Hikes are Stimulative?!

    What if Hikes are Stimulative?!
    Apr 19 2024
    The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation? Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun! And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/
    Show more Show less
    37 mins
  • Yes, But What Will Break Markets?

    Yes, But What Will Break Markets?
    Apr 12 2024
    This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?
    Show more Show less
    38 mins
  • The Next Big Trade?

    The Next Big Trade?
    Apr 5 2024
    Interested in Alf's Macro Fund? Send an email to fund@themacrocompass.com Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show!
    Show more Show less
    36 mins
  • Macro Traders Reflections

    Macro Traders Reflections
    Mar 29 2024
    Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades. Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors. https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surface The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey My System by Aron Nimovich
    Show more Show less
    37 mins
  • Dario Perkins: These Central Banks Better Pivot Fast

    Dario Perkins: These Central Banks Better Pivot Fast
    Mar 22 2024
    This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week. Go and follow Dario on Twitter (@darioperkins). And share the word about TMTF with a friend!
    Show more Show less
    37 mins
  • Volatility is Coming

    Volatility is Coming
    Mar 15 2024
    The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas. Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/
    Show more Show less
    36 mins
  • Animal Spirits Running Loose

    Animal Spirits Running Loose
    Mar 8 2024
    Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.
    Show more Show less
    39 mins