Weighing The Risks

By: Orion Advisor Technology
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  • Summary

  • Weighing The Risks was created to help you, the financial advisor or investor, reach your long-term financial goals. In each episode, we consider various market scenarios to help prepare for the certainty of uncertainty. Remember to look at where you're going to, not what you're going through. Brought to you by Orion. Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. 0140-OAT-1/18/2024
    Orion
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Episodes
  • Raj Udeshi of FarmClub - Civil War 2.0?

    Raj Udeshi of FarmClub - Civil War 2.0?
    Sep 4 2024
    This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Raj Udeshi, Founder of FarmClub and, previously, the founder of Hidden Levers. As a serial entrepreneur, Mr. Udeshi has a history of bootstrapped success. Now fully immersed in a 1,400-acre pistachio farm for the past 4 years, Mr. Udeshi has turned his attention to the things that matter most – security for food, water, and energy. Before entering the agriculture sector, Mr. Udeshi was Founder and CRO of a HiddenLevers, a fintech platform which was acquired after 11 years in business (acquired by Orion in 2021). Mr. Udeshi stayed on as Chief Innovation Officer and then transitioned into farming. He is now the Founder and Managing Member of FarmClub, a nascent agriculture innovation incubator in Central Valley, California. Mr. Udeshi received a JD from Pepperdine School of Law and a BA from Northwestern University, with work experience in appellate law, sales + trading, fintech, new media, and visual arts. Key Takeaways[03:16] - More on Raj’s background and his work at Hidden Levers.[11:56] - Learn more about FarmClub, the new agriculture company that Raj founded.[16:16] - Learn more about the Hidden Levers’ war room webinars. How did Raj create these and what were they designed to do?[22:47] - How does Raj define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?[26:14] - What about a potential civil war is so compelling to Raj?[29:51] - How would Raj define civil war, in all its potential permutations, in current times?[38:00] - Might the US debt be the powder keg or catalyst for a “civil war” type event?[45:47] - What would it take for the US to lose its status as the reserve currency?[49:37] - Could all of the political unrest be a potential way of deleveraging and growing our way out of debt?[65:21] - Base case market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.[71:12] - Good case market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.[82:35] - Ugly market scenario for the election year and how probable Raj thinks this is.[88:24] - Are there any other risks that advisors and investors should be considering right now? Quotes[23:27] ~ “Now, I’d say we are in a different era, we’re definitely in a stock picker’s era. Fundamentals matter way more. I’ve noticed just how much equities react on the day of earnings, up and down, just way more than the first 20 years of my career. So, maybe it’s a more fundamentals market now and macro matters less, or it’s just quickly put to the side…and I do agree with the comment that is commonly heard in finance, which is, the biggest risk is being out of the market - right? Over a 20 year period, over a long horizon, the biggest risk is being out of the market, not having something at risk. ” ~ Raj Udeshi[35:03] ~ “You know The Fed looks a lot at winter, and non-consumption during winter, because people aren’t driving, people aren’t vacationing, they’re not doing those things. So, if there’s a serious amount…a pervasive or scaled violence, what I’d say is I’d be afraid of societal non-participation…people not going out to the movies, eating dinner [etc].” ~ Raj UdeshiLinksRaj Udeshi on LinkedInraj@farmclub.ag“Harvest Moon” by Poolside (Neil Young Cover)Connect with UsMeet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment OfficerCheck Out All of Orion’s PodcastsPower Your Growth with OrionDisclosure(s):Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC, an Orion Company, is a registered investment advisor.The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org. Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.Compliance Code: 2129-OAT-8/20/2024
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    1 hr and 38 mins
  • David Lundgren of MOTR Capital Management and Research - Momentum Investing: When It Works and When It Doesn’t

    David Lundgren of MOTR Capital Management and Research - Momentum Investing: When It Works and When It Doesn’t
    Aug 7 2024
    This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by David Lundgren, Founder and Chief Market Strategist at MOTR Capital Management and Research and Portfolio Manager at Little Harbor. David has more than three decades of investment industry experience, with a focus on technical analysis strategies, particularly momentum and trend following. He is the former Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management, where he was also a Managing Director and portfolio manager with extensive experience managing global long-only and US long-short portfolios. David also held senior analyst positions at Fidelity & Thomson Financial. In addition, he has started several research and investment firms, including hedge fund Lyceum Capital, Breakaway Research, and most recently MOTR Capital Management & Research, Inc. He is also the portfolio manager of a private long short momentum & trend following hedge fund. David taught a graduate level Technical Analysis course at Brandeis International Business School, in Waltham, MA (June 2015-June 2020), where he received the 2015 Excellence in Teaching Award in his first year. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) dual charter holder, and a member of CMT Association’s board of directors. He launched and Co-Hosts “Fill the Gap”, CMT Association’s official podcast. David is a graduate of Babson College (1988), with a finance and investments dual major.Key Takeaways[03:41] - David’s professional background and what he is focused on in his current roles.[08:23] - How does David define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?[13:07] - What is the momentum factor, how is it classically defined and how does David’s definition differ, if at all, in practice?[21:50] - Does momentum work for taxable investors if portfolio turnover is too high?[23:18] - How have machine learning and AI algorithmic trading shifted how momentum operates, as well as how it presents itself in the market?[26:53] - When you see parabolic moves, they often go a lot longer and higher than people expect but once they stall they often plummet, rather than plateauing. What does David think about this?[30:27] - Based on current market conditions, does David think we are in a bit of a momentum bubble and how is he accounting for this in his strategies if so?[36:03] - Various market scenarios and how David would adjust them, if at all.[39:36] - Bad case scenario for momentum investing and how probable David thinks this is.[43:27] - Good case scenario for momentum investing and how probable David thinks this is.[45:08] - Are there any other risks that investors should be considering in the current market environment? Quotes[04:40] ~ “It’s the combination of momentum and trend that I think is the real home run, if you will, because momentum is…a very valuable input to the investment process, but it also has a lot of problems with it. Then there’s trend following, which is also a very powerful input to any investment process, but it also has its problems…What I find is when you put them together, they emphasize each other’s strengths, but they also fill the holes of each other’s weaknesses.” ~ David Lundgren[19:20] ~ “Once you make a decision in a portfolio, there’s only four things that can happen from there. You can either make a little, you can lose a little, you can make a lot or you can lose a lot. The truth is, if we are being honest, the only one of those four things that we can control, is we can prevent ourselves from losing a lot of money and then the rest of it is up to what the market is willing to give us.” ~ David LundgrenLinksDavid Lundgren on LinkedInMOTR Capital Management and Research“Not Afraid” by EminemDavid Lundgren on TwitterFill the Gap PodcastJesse Livermore’s BookNicolas Darvas’ BookWilliam O’Neill’s BookVivaldi’s Winter“Hate To Say I Told You So” by The HivesConnect with UsMeet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment OfficerCheck Out All of Orion’s PodcastsPower Your Growth with OrionDisclosure(s) -Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.Compliance Code: 1891-OAT-7/30/2024
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    56 mins
  • Kevin Baum of United States Commodity Funds - Commodities & Inflation and What That Means for the Global Economy

    Kevin Baum of United States Commodity Funds - Commodities & Inflation and What That Means for the Global Economy
    Jul 3 2024
    This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Kevin Baum, Chief Investment Officer at United States Commodity Funds (USCF). Kevin Baum, Chief Investment Officer, brings over 20 years of experience as a Senior Commodities Portfolio Manager. Kevin is responsible for expanding USCF's product line andoverseeing the company's investment policies and portfolio management team. Prior to joining USCF, he was Senior Portfolio Manager of Alternatives and Commodities for Invesco PowerShares. Kevin was part of the OppenheimerFunds team responsible for launching the first commodities mutual fund and subsequently incorporated the first off-shore Cayman subsidiary for a commodities fund. Kevin also served as Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Commodities and earned the Barron's/Value Line "Top 100 Managers" designation three times. Kevin is a CFA charterholder and CAIA charterholder. He earned a Bachelor of Business Administration degree in Finance, from Texas Tech University.Key Takeaways[03:03] - Kevin’s professional background and more about his current role at USCF.[05:03] - How does Kevin define risk and how does he think investors and advisors should think about it?[06:49] - The copper gold ratio has declined over the last couple of months. Does Kevin think this is just a flash in the pan or a big warning sign that we should be looking for more recessionary trouble to come?[09:38] - Does Kevin think we are in the start of a super cycle for commodities or is their recent two year rally just them playing catch up?[13:36] - What are some of the constraints for bringing a new copper or rare earth metals mine online and why does it take as long as it does?[16:13] - Kevin compares the relative benefits of investing in commodities via a Passive ETF vs. an Actively Managed ETF.[20:31] - Rules of thumb and practical considerations for advisors looking to incorporate real assets, or commodities, into their portfolios.[23:22] - Best commodities for certain seasonal and tactical situations like inflation hedging and black swans.[30:42] - A base case economic outlook for commodities, and the broader market, and how probable Kevin thinks this might be.[33:45] - A bad economic outlook for commodities and how probable this might be.[36:32] - A good case for commodities and how probable this might be.[42:05] - What are some other risks that investors should be considering right now? Quotes[09:57] ~ “I do think it’s important for advisors and investors to realize that commodities are kind of long cycle, long wave assets. If you look historically we see these decades where commodity prices do very well…Yes, ultimately the cure for low price is low price and the cure for high price is high price and, eventually, higher prices will bring capital into the space, but it takes a long time to develop new energy products [and] to bring new mines online. ” ~ Kevin Baum[19:03] ~ “We’re not using the gray matter of a Portfolio Manager to swing the portfolio, you know, we’re following the monthly algorithm of our benchmark index…[however] we think that’s intelligent indexing, which is akin to Active Management…We do think that the commodity space is one that really lends itself to that type of approach. So, I would strongly encourage advisors to look underneath the hood and think long and hard about the different implementation choices in this asset class. ” ~ Kevin BaumLinksKevin Baum on LinkedInUSCF Investments“Lose Yourself” by EminemConnect with UsMeet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment OfficerCheck Out All of Orion’s PodcastsPower Your Growth with OrionDisclosure(s) - Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.Compliance Code: 1632-OAT-6/28/2024
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    48 mins
Economics Personal Finance
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