the WiRE - Weekly Roundup

By: the WiRE - the Week in Real Estate
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  • Your go-to summary of the top stories shaping the real estate industry this week.
    © 2024 The WiRE Podcast Network. All rights reserved. This podcast and its content, including audio, text, and graphics, are the intellectual property of The WiRE Podcast Network. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or use is strictly prohibited without prior written consent. For permissions or inquiries, visit thewirefm.com.
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Episodes
  • Housing Unfrozen? 2025's Mortgage Rate Rollercoaster & What It Means For You

    Housing Unfrozen? 2025's Mortgage Rate Rollercoaster & What It Means For You
    Mar 3 2025

    Key Topics:

    Inventory Check-Up: National inventory is up nearly 30% year-over-year, signaling relief for buyers, and Altos Research expects this growth to continue. However, new listings are still not abundant, and the pace of inventory growth may be capped.

    Regional Hotspots: California and Arizona lead inventory growth, while Texas and Florida, previously frontrunners, are now lagging. Florida has the highest inventory of any month on record.

    Price Trends: Home price appreciation is slowing, with some experts predicting further deceleration. Nationally, prices are just slightly above last year's levels, but the rate of growth is down.

    Compression: Home prices are compressing, with smaller increases compared to previous years.

    Price Cuts: A growing percentage of homes are undergoing price reductions, indicating weakening demand.

    Mortgage Rate Impact: Mortgage rates remain a critical factor. Rates near 6% stimulate buyer demand, while higher rates can lead to price adjustments. Economic uncertainty may push rates down, but inflation data could reverse this trend.

    Affordability Crisis: Affordability worsened in January, with mortgage payments rising. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Applications Payment Index reflects this strain.

    Demographic Impact: Housing affordability is declining across all racial and ethnic groups.

    New Construction Dynamics: New-home sales represent a high percentage of the market. Builders are using incentives such as mortgage rate buy-downs and price reductions to attract buyers. Townhome growth is notable.

    Regional Rundown:Northeast: Strong home price growth.

    South: Sluggish growth in some areas; falling prices in certain Florida metros.

    West: Inventory increasing.

    Pending Home Sales: Pending home sales dipped in January, and the Pending Home Sales Index hit an all-time low, suggesting fewer closings this spring.

    Regional Differences: The South experienced the greatest falloff in contract signings.

    Sentrilock Home Showings Report: SentriLock home showings were up 4% year-over-year.

    Expert Corner:

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Predicts the housing market will "unfreeze" soon.

    Altos Research: Expects inventory growth to be capped.

    Zillow: Forecasts slower home price growth.

    National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: Notes that elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates strained affordability.

    Predictions and Outlook:

    Mortgage Rate Forecasts: Experts predict mortgage rates will moderate, with potential volatility based on economic data and policy changes.

    Housing Market Projections: Modest increases in new-home construction and sales are expected.

    Actionable Advice:

    For Buyers: Be ready to act quickly, get pre-approved for a mortgage, and shop around for the best rates.

    For Sellers: Consider offering price reductions or other incentives to attract buyers.

    Conclusion: The housing market in 2025 is a puzzle with pieces that don't quite fit. Rising inventory offers hope, but affordability remains a major hurdle. Monitoring mortgage rates, economic data, and regional trends is crucial for navigating this complex landscape.
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    21 mins
  • Decoding the 2025 Housing Market: Gen Z, Musk, and Mortgage Mayhem

    Decoding the 2025 Housing Market: Gen Z, Musk, and Mortgage Mayhem
    Feb 24 2025
    Welcome to Housing Unhinged, the podcast that cuts through the headlines and dives deep into the data to reveal what's really happening in the housing market. In today's episode, we're tackling the big question on everyone's mind: are we headed for a crash, or will prices simply plateau? We'll analyze the latest trends in home prices, mortgage rates, inventory, and buyer behavior to give you a clear picture of what to expect this spring.Home Prices: Flat is the New Up?Home price appreciation is slowing: Across the country, home prices are only slightly higher than last year. In many markets, prices are below last year's levels, with some weeks showing price declines."Virtually flat": One expert considers home prices as "virtually flat" year-over-year, with real terms being negative.Regional differences: The Sun Belt markets have higher inventory and are more likely to see price declines, while northern cities have tight inventory and potential price appreciation.High-end properties are selling quickly: Well-priced properties are still selling fast in most areas.Price cuts are common: A significant percentage of homes on the market have taken price cuts.Mortgage Rates: Stuck in Neutral?Rates remain elevated: Mortgage rates have been hovering around 7%, impacting buyer demand.Small fluctuations: Rates have seen small declines, but mortgage applications have dipped.Affordability challenge: High home prices combined with mortgage rates make affordability a major concern.Impact of Fed policy: The Federal Reserve's actions and inflation data will significantly influence future mortgage rate trends.Expert predictions: While rates are expected to moderate, the timing and extent of any decreases remain uncertain.Inventory: A Mixed BagInventory is growing: There are more homes on the market now than last year.Forecasts vary: Some forecasts predict continued inventory growth, while others anticipate tightening if mortgage rates fall.New listings: New listings are up compared to last year, but still below pre-pandemic levels.Negotiating power: Increased inventory is giving buyers more negotiating power. Homes are selling for less than the asking price.Days on market: Homes are taking longer to sell, indicating a shift in market dynamics.Buyer Behavior: Cautious Optimism?Weak demand: Overall, buyer demand remains weak.First-time buyers: The share of sales to first-time buyers remains low.Cash buyers: A significant portion of transactions are all-cash, indicating that many buyers are not reliant on mortgage rates.Gen Z: Generation Z is finding affordable homes in specific markets, particularly in the Midwest and South.Sluggish start: Despite optimism for a stronger sales year, the market has had a slow start.Government and Policy Impacts:HUD changes: Potential cuts to HUD staff and programs could impact disaster recovery, rental assistance, and fair housing.CFPB uncertainty: Changes at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could affect consumer protection.FHA layoffs: Potential layoffs at the Federal Housing Administration could disrupt the mortgage industry.Government spending: Efforts to reduce government spending could influence mortgage rates.Regional Analysis:Northeast: Sales decreased, but prices increased.Midwest: Sales increased, and prices increased.South: Sales decreased, and prices increased.West: Sales decreased, and prices increased.Builder Confidence:Sentiment falls: Builder confidence has dipped due to concerns about material costs, labor shortages, and mortgage rates.Sales expectations: Sales expectations for the next six months have fallen.Conclusion:The housing market in early 2025 is complex. While some indicators point to a potential slowdown or price correction, other factors, such as limited inventory in certain markets, could keep prices stable. The impact of government policies and economic conditions remains a significant uncertainty.Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
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    22 mins
  • AFFH Under Attack: How DOGE's HUD Cuts Could Reshape Your Neighborhood

    AFFH Under Attack: How DOGE's HUD Cuts Could Reshape Your Neighborhood
    Feb 17 2025
    DOJ vs. Zillow and NAR: The Department of Justice is scrutinizing a case involving Zillow and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), raising concerns about potential antitrust violations related to NAR's "no-commingling" policy.The DOJ is worried that a previous court decision in favor of Zillow could set a precedent that allows organizations to evade antitrust laws.At issue is NAR's commingling rule, which the DOJ suggests was effectively mandatory for Zillow, even though it was "optional".REX, a low-fee brokerage, initially sued Zillow in 2021, claiming that Zillow used deceptive practices to hide non-MLS listings, thereby reducing traffic to those listings.Zillow stated that the changes were made to comply with NAR's no-commingling policy and that they have advocated against the rule.The DOJ filed an amicus brief arguing that the court's approach was incomplete and could allow associations like NAR to evade antitrust scrutiny with optional rules.HUD's Transformation Under DOGE: The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is undergoing significant changes following the arrival of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).Scott Turner, the new secretary of Housing and Urban Development, announced $260 million in savings. However, the sources of these savings have not been identified.Mass layoffs at HUD are expected, potentially cutting the staff by half, with impacts on civil rights enforcement, data gathering, and disaster recovery.The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) National Council 222 stated that the cuts would affect offices that enforce civil rights laws, compile data about the housing market, and rebuild communities after disasters.Turner has expressed intentions to roll back the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule, which was originally enacted during the Obama administration.Market Conditions and Inventory: Analysis of current housing market data reveals a subtle but important trend: potential home sellers are seeing weak demand and choosing not to list their properties.While inventory isn't shrinking yet, the trend suggests fewer home sellers, which could keep a lid on supply growth.New listings are only averaging a 1% to 2% increase each week, and one week showed fewer sellers than the previous year.Mike Simonson from Altos Research noted that after a period of normalization with more sellers, the housing market appears to be stagnating again.Fewer sellers imply a cap on inventory growth, even with weak demand, leading to fewer sales overall.Price reductions are increasing, which is unusual for this early in the season, indicating weaker conditions for home prices in 2025.The median price for single-family homes is $425,000, unchanged from last year, and homes going into contract are priced at $389,000, only 2.4% higher than the previous year.New contracts for single-family homes are down 5% compared to the same week last year, suggesting a continued slow purchase market.Available inventory of unsold single-family homes fell by 40 basis points, with 632,000 homes on the market.Off-MLS Listings: Selling homes off the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) can have negative financial impacts.Homes sold off the MLS typically sell for $4,975 less than those listed on the MLS, a median loss of 1.5% nationwide.In California, sellers gave up more than $30,000 by selling off the MLS.Some brokerages are steering sellers to list on private networks without adequately highlighting the potential negative price impacts.A Zillow/Harris Poll survey found that 63% of recent home sellers said their agent recommended listing on a private listing network.81% of Americans believe it is important for their home listing to be viewable for free to the public.Sellers in urban homes experienced the most significant median loss at 2%, compared to 1.5% in suburban areas and 0.9% in rural areas.Almost all buyers (91%) believe they should be able to see all listings for free and without barriers.Challenges for Veteran Homebuyers: Veterans face unique challenges in achieving homeownership.Many consider homeownership the pinnacle of achievement and prosperity, especially for Veterans.The number of financial institutions servicing home loans for Veterans has declined, leaving them with fewer options.Some lenders lack sufficient expertise in military benefits, compensation, and pension structures, leading them to prematurely reject military homebuyers.Unexpected deployments or frequent relocations can negatively impact Veterans' credit scores, leading to misguided lending decisions.Industry leaders need to educate themselves about the benefits available to military homebuyers and support opportunities to help servicemembers learn more about their entitled benefits.Additional Points:MetroList, Northern Nevada Regional MLS, and Oregon Data Share have formed a technology collaboration to share real estate transaction data across California, Nevada, and Oregon.NAR spent $86.3 ...
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    27 mins

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