Episodes

  • 467. Understanding Human Behavior in Economics with Vernon L. Smith

    467. Understanding Human Behavior in Economics with Vernon L. Smith
    Sep 30 2024
    Much of the field of economics derives its theories from a subset of Adam Smith’s philosophy found in the Wealth of Nations. But are economists overlooking other parts of Adam Smith’s teachings that could explain more about human behavior and economics? Nobel-prize winning economist Vernon L. Smith is an emeritus professor of economics and law at Chapman University. His books like Rationality in Economics: Constructivist and Ecological Forms and Humanomics: Moral Sentiments and the Wealth of Nations for the Twenty-First Century explore how human behavior shapes economics.Vernon and Greg discuss the role Adam Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments plays in understanding behavioral economics, Vernon’s early supply and demand experiments, and how his work shaped the field of experimental economics. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Show Links:Recommended Resources:Adam Smith StoicismAlfred MarshallEdward ChamberlinMilton FriedmanKevin A McCabeCharles HoltBetsy HoffmanGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at Chapman UniversityNobel Prize Winner BioHis Work:Economics of Markets: Neoclassical Theory, Experiments, and Theory of Classical Price DiscoveryRationality in Economics: Constructivist and Ecological FormsHumanomics: Moral Sentiments and the Wealth of Nations for the Twenty-First Century A Life of Experimental Economics, Volume I: Forty Years of DiscoveryA Life of Experimental Economics, Volume II: The Next Fifty YearsEpisode Quotes:Do humans learn economics through experience, not theory?39:09: People don't get the economics right by thinking about it. They get it right by actually participating in markets and getting a feel for what's going on. And I argue that humans are very good, once they do that. Sure, they can be fooled. And they do a lot of crazy things in a new market before they've acquired experience, but they adapt very well. And so, that equilibrium concepts are relevant. But the behavior is very much experience-oriented. And so, they get there through experiential learning. You see more than just abstract analysis and thinking about it.Perspective is at the foundation of the theorem of moral sentiments12:29: [The relationship] Perspective is at the foundation of the Theory of Moral Sentiments. That's what he's [Adam Smith] talking about—sentiments. An important part of it is fellow feeling.Gratitude influences sacrifice and motivates cooperation48:16: Gratitude creates indebtedness. And so people may have self-interested motivations, but they also have this motivation to get along with others. And so this proposition predicts, in the trust game, that people are sacrificing; they're taking less reward in order to do what they believe is right, to treat this person.Why is Vernon championing Adam Smith’s principles in the modern way of thinking about economics?56:45: So that's why I'm a champion of trying to get that pattern of thinking and Adam Smith's principles into the modern way of thinking in economics. Economics and psychology, and in economics, because the Theorem of Sentiments was a contribution to social psychology that just never took hold. It was another hundred years, you see, before psychology started to do anything. And it was the beginning of the 20th century before psychology became very prominent. And then it was individual psychology, not social psychology. I think Adam Smith would find that strange.
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    55 mins
  • 466. Keeping Science Apolitical with John Staddon

    466. Keeping Science Apolitical with John Staddon
    Sep 26 2024
    Just like all people, scientists have their own morals and political ideologies. But how do those values influence their work? What are the potential ramifications of science mixing with politics? John Staddon is an emeritus professor of psychology and neuroscience at Duke University and the author of numerous books. His works like Science in an Age of Unreason and Scientific Method: How Science Works, Fails to Work, and Pretends to Work examine the history of the scientific field and the challenges it faces today from becoming overly entangled with politics. John and Greg discuss the importance of distinguishing facts from values in scientific inquiry, how scientific consensus is often mistaken for truth, and the need for scientists to maintain objectivity despite societal pressures. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Is modern society abandoning the distinction between balance and fact?04:59: Science itself cannot be racist. A fact is either true or false. There’s no moral element to simply a fact. There are younger people now, who simply cannot accept that a fact is just a fact. Now, you may react to it one way or another depending on your value system, but the fact by itself is not racist or not racist. So, this is a very serious problem, I think, in modern society because a lot of people have completely abandoned this distinction between fact and value. And it's wrecking, not nuclear physics or electronics, but it's wrecking the human sciences. Suppressing a fact can be just a harmful as promoting a lie07:04: Logic tells you suppressing a fact can be just as harmful as promoting a lie, and indeed, suppressing a fact will often lead to promoting a lie as a substitute for it. So, you've just gotta keep them [emotions and judgment of the truth or falsity of facts] separate.When uncertainty is the only honest answer in science13:54: One should be more skeptical of social science because it's much harder to obtain a definitive result. [14:13]: So the really only honest response is to say, "I don't know." The problem is that society doesn't want to say, "I don't know." Are there too many scientists and too many scientific journals, with too much effort invested in the sciences?22:19: Success in science, a lot of it's luck. You happen to be in an area where there's a problem that can be solved, and the opportunity comes, and you solve it. But it's certainly not true that by sheer effort you can find a fertile area. So that's one problem. The other problem, well, there are a number of points to make. One other one is that science is not a manufacturing process. It's like widgets, you know. If you want to double the number of people making widgets, you've got to double the number of widgets. Science is not like that. It has to be solvable problems. But if you double the number of scientists and the number of available problems is not doubled, you've got a problem because they've got to find something to do, and so on, and you're liable to generate as much noise as knowledge. Show Links:Recommended Resources:J.D. Bernal The Art of Scientific Investigation by William Ian BeveridgeThe Descent of Man by Charles DarwinTrofim LysenkoJerry CoyneRichard DawkinsAlvin WeibergB. F. SkinnerQueen Victoria by Lytton Strachey Alan GreenspanGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at Duke UniversityHis Work:Science in an Age of UnreasonThe New Behaviorism: Second Edition Scientific Method: How Science Works, Fails to Work, and Pretends to WorkUnlucky Strike: Private Health and the Science, Law and Politics of SmokingThe Englishman: Memoirs of a PsychobiologistAdaptive Dynamics: The Theoretical Analysis of Behavior The Malign Hand of the Markets: The Insidious Forces on Wall Street that are Destroying Financial Markets – and What We Can Do About it
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    43 mins
  • 465. Placebo Power: Mindfulness and Its Impact on Health feat. Ellen J. Langer

    465. Placebo Power: Mindfulness and Its Impact on Health feat. Ellen J. Langer
    Sep 23 2024
    Ellen J. Langer is a Professor of Psychology at Harvard University. She is also the author of several books, including The Mindful Body: Thinking Our Way to Chronic Health, Mindfulness, Counterclockwise: Mindful Health and the Power of Possibility, and The Power of Mindful Learning.Ellen and Greg discuss the profound influence of mindfulness on decision-making and work-life balance, while challenging the illusions of control, certainty, and predictability. Ellen also breaks down the extraordinary world of placebos, illustrating how mindfulness can have a placebo-like effect on health, and how our beliefs and thoughts can significantly impact our physical health. They also talk about mindfulness in education and healthcare, underscoring its invaluable benefits for patients, doctors, and individuals in general.*unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:On the importance of showing-up07:34: If you're going to do something, you should show up for it. And when you do show up for it, everything is better. So as you're actively noticing, you look alive. People find you more attractive. When you're being mindful, people see you as charismatic, authentic, and certainly attractive. Not only that, it makes you healthier, it's fun, and people are going to find you more appealing, but it actually leaves its imprint in the things that we do. They're just better. So if you're painting, playing a musical instrument, writing a report, no matter what you're doing, if you show up for the activity, you're going to produce something better. To my mind, there's no reason, once people truly understand what this work is about, that you would not try to change your ways in some sense and be mindful virtually all the time.Mindfulness is a way of being03:24: People need to understand that mindfulness has nothing to do with meditation. Meditation is not about mindfulness. Meditation is a practice you engage in to result in post-meditative mindfulness. Mindfulness, as we study it, is immediate. And it's not a practice. It's a way of being.Why is going from being mindless to mindful is hard?24:31: Going from being mindless to mindful is hard because when you're not there, you're not there to know you're not there. So that's why the instruction is, "Stop and smell the roses and be in the present." It's sweet but empty because when you're not there, you don't know that you're not there. So you can't fix it, but if you were to throw yourself into some new activity without worrying about being evaluated, and you feel how good it feels to be totally engaged, then just don't accept anything less than that.On being mindful of shifting point of view11:48: When people are mindless, they're more or less acting like automatons. And when you're mindful, you have a general sense of what you want to do. You can have goals and routines, but they're guiding what you're doing. They're not overly determining what you're doing. So I say to my students, "Okay, let's say, on your way to class today, you run into Michelle Obama. And she takes such a liking to you for who knows what reason. And she says, 'Do you want to go have a cup of coffee?'" It would be crazy for you to say, "No, I have to go to class." All right, but I think mindlessly, especially the A students, that's just what they would do, rather than say, "Well, circumstances now are so unusual, I should take advantage of it." And so when you're mindful because you're there, you get to take advantage of opportunities to which you'd otherwise be blind, and you avoid the danger that has not yet arisen.Show Links:Recommended Resources:SocratesEpictetusPrimingThe Counterclockwise StudyFrank A. BeachGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at HarvardEllen J. Langer's WebsiteEllen J. Langer on LinkedInEllen J. Langer on XHer Work:The Mindful Body: Thinking Our Way to Chronic HealthMindfulnessCounterclockwise: Mindful Health and the Power of PossibilityThe Power of Mindful LearningOn Becoming an Artist: Reinventing Yourself Through Mindful Creativity
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    1 hr and 3 mins
  • 464. The Digital Age From Your Brain’s POV with Richard Cytowic

    464. The Digital Age From Your Brain’s POV with Richard Cytowic
    Sep 19 2024
    There’s a significant mismatch between our ancient brain's capabilities and the rapid advancements in technology. Simply put, our brains just can’t keep up in the digital age. But what does that impact look like from the brain’s point of view? What’s really going on with the neurotransmitters when we take in all that information? Richard Cytowic is a professor of neurology at George Washington University. His books like Your Stone Age Brain in the Screen Age: Coping with Digital Distraction and Sensory Overload and The Man Who Tasted Shapes examine the effects of technology on the brain and explore the rare but very real phenomenon of synesthesia. Richard and Greg chat about the energy economics of brain function, the inherent limitations of multitasking, and the benefits of a digital detox. They also explore synesthesia, how human neurology is uniquely wired for metaphor, and how babies might all have some form of synesthesia early on. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Why multitasking is exhausting your brain04:05: Our brains today are no different from those of our distant ancestors. I mean, they have not evolved one iota, whereas technology has been advancing ten thousand, a million times more than that. So I do think we've reached the point where we're asking it to do what it simply can't do anymore. The brain has a fixed level of energy that it can use, and no amount of diet, exercise, supplements, or Sudoku puzzles can possibly increase that. So when you're asking it to multitask or to keep switching attention from one thing to another, you're asking it to do things that it was never designed to do, that it can't do very well, if at all. And so that's why people are burned out and fatigued.Why are people so concerned about what they put in their bodies, but not about what their mind consumes?35:13: People are so concerned about what they put in their bodies—non-GMO, vegan, no sugar, no artificial colorings. But why aren't they as picky about what they ingest through their senses? I mean, the mental garbage that we take in is certainly less harmful than the occasional cheeseburger and Twinkie. So people just don't think in terms of, "What is my sensory diet?" And again, I'm so unusual because I'm thinking neurologically and neuropsychologically, and most people never have the opportunity or the inclination to think about the way that they think—this metacognition kind of thing.Quiet is an essential nutrient 15:03: Quiet is the antidote to everything. I call it an essential nutrient. We need it to give ourselves space to think. And part of it has to do, I think, with people feeling that they don't like solitude. They think being alone is an odious, difficult state. But I say that solitude has. Loneliness wants. And so if you can distinguish between the two—that here, sitting in a park with a tree and a green space, and I'm quite happy, eating my lunch here in solitude—then this is a positive experience for me. I'm giving myself a nourishing experience. But if I'm thinking, Oh my God, I'm all alone. There's nobody to talk to. I don't know what to do; you're doing a number on yourself and freaking yourself out.The iPad as babysitter29:52: The iPad is the worst babysitter in the world. Look at a baby when they get to be on the move and start crawling. They put everything in their mouths. They're touching, feeling, and having a visual apprenticeship with the world. And when you put this screen full of mediated images in front of them, those characters, if they're Disneyfied or not, don't engage with the child in the same way that a real human being does. They talk at a child. They don't talk with a child. Whereas an adult who's playing peek-a-boo, and "so big," and other kinds of things like that, they're speaking to the child in normal adult language. And these kids are picking things up like sponges, believe me, and that's what they need to have. They need to have that one-on-one interaction.Show Links:Recommended Resources:What percentage of your brain do you use? | TED-EdWilliam JamesClifford Nass Her (film)Bernard-Henri LévyThe Revenge of Analog: Real Things and Why They Matter by David SaxDaphne MaurerGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at George Washington UniversityProfessional WebsiteLinkedIn ProfileHis Work:Your Stone Age Brain in the Screen Age: Coping with Digital Distraction and Sensory OverloadSynesthesia The Man Who Tasted ShapesWednesday Is Indigo Blue: Discovering the Brain of Synesthesia
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    56 mins
  • 463. Forecasting the Future of Energy and AI feat. Mark P. Mills

    463. Forecasting the Future of Energy and AI feat. Mark P. Mills
    Sep 16 2024
    When does predicting the future become a science and not a fantasy? What can be learned from forecasts throughout the ages and across different industries? What does the future of energy look like, given certain unchangeable limitations of physics themselves?Mark P. Mills is the founder and executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics and the author of the books The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020s, Digital Cathedrals, and Work in the Age of Robots. Greg and Mark discuss the complexities and pitfalls of forecasting, why we often get it wrong, and the various types of forecasters. Mark explains the interconnectedness of energy, computing, and infrastructure, arguing against a simplistic view of an energy transition and highlighting the intricate dance of innovation and efficiency across centuries. He also touches on the future impact of AI, the importance of complementary investments for technological growth, and the profound phase changes society is currently undergoing. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:On forecasting and the future of technology06:04: In the book [The Cloud Revolution], what I chose to do was a framing of a forecast with technology that was very specific, and which I think can be highly predictive and accurate. And this is not about how much money people will make or what company will succeed, but if you want to forecast the next decade on technology, not about human nature, not about wars, not about who gets elected, those things all matter because the world is dynamic, and these things interact. Economies matter; they affect our ability to build things, fund things. So, an economy that's shrinking can delay the forecast of a new product or service because if the new product or service requires new capital, new infrastructure, and capital's expensive, then the actual emergence of that system might take longer than you thought, but it'll still happen. It'll just happen later.Efficiency fuels demand, not reduces it44:15: The idea, which we can find better and implement better through compute communications and AI, means that we have not tapped all the efficiencies, systems, and supply chains. There's enormous efficiency to be had. But efficiency creates demand; it doesn't kill demand…This complete misunderstanding of efficiency is a failure to understand how humans operate, how we live our lives, and what we like to do.Why big airplanes won't fly on lithium batteries40:39: When the technologies are new, there are two things about them: we haven't figured out how to make them at physics limits yet. Our knowledge is weak. We haven't refined the engineering because it's a new technology. So, as you do that, you approach physics limits. And this is what's going on now with batteries. You can't store more energy in a lithium battery than exists in the lithiated chemicals. You can't. I mean, it's the lithium atom. It's one of the most energetic atoms on the periodic table. But lithiated chemicals have one-fifth the energy per pound that hydrocarbons do. So, hydrocarbons start with a 50-fold. That's a pretty big advantage in energy per pound. So, what you would do then is make machines to extract the energy per pound, which is why big airplanes are not going to have lithium batteries. They'll carry them, but they're not going to fly with them. Little ones can because the advantage that the hydrocarbons have in the physics of the universe we live in is so much greater. So, it doesn't matter how cheap the lithium is. If it were free, it wouldn't change the fact that the fuel for the airplane would weigh more than the airplane because it's not dense enough.Systems have inertia33:48: Systems have inertia, economic systems, and financial systems. Physical systems all have inertia. It's a physics term, but it's anchored in how the universe really operates. You can't change big things quickly, except by explosions, right? In social economic terms and physical terms. You can change things quickly and explosively, but explosions are destructive, whether it's a financial, economic, or physical system. So, the velocity of change first begins with the size of the system you're trying to change. Show Links:Recommended Resources:1939 New York World's FairFuture ShockPeter DruckerIrving FisherKenneth J. GergenMalthusianismSimon–Ehrlich wagerFirst Jewish–Roman WarRobert SolowThe Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic ProgressGuest Profile:LinkedInProfessional Profile on National Center for Energy AnalyticsMark P. Mills Tech-Pundit.comProfile on XHis Work:Amazon Author PageThe Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020sDigital CathedralsWork in the Age of RobotsForbes Articles
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    59 mins
  • 462. The Science of Management with Nicholas Bloom

    462. The Science of Management with Nicholas Bloom
    Sep 12 2024
    How do you measure the quality of management at a company? And how much do management practices impact a firm’s overall performance? Nicholas Bloom is a professor of economics at Stanford University and co-director of the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research on working from home and management practices has been published in numerous scientific journals, including the Journal of Political Economy and Nature. Nicholas and Greg discuss the historical trends of productivity growth, why management is often overlooked as a technological advance, and the challenges of measuring and improving management quality. Nicholas also shares some of his key management tips from his years of studying firms across the world. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Is high uncertainty an opportunity for big returns?43:42: High uncertainty is where the money is. When life's uncertain, that's where the profits have been made. Kind of Warren Buffett/VCs. A good example of that would be the dot-com boom. So, in the dot-com boom, everyone knew in the early 2000s, look, the internet's going to be a big thing. And it turns out it was a big thing. You just don't know which bit and when and how. And so the view is, look, if we invest in the internet, we have a lot of these implicit options on it. And if it takes off, these are valuable. If they’re not, we wasted our money, but no more. And so, there's also kind of what I call exploratory investment when demand or markets are uncertain. You do, on the other hand, want to spend some kind of R&D-ish type money or open subsidiaries or open up a website or whatever. And it's like placing a bet. It's like investment in equity, if you think about it. And if it works out well, great. You've 10x your money. And if it doesn't, you've lost your cash.The key for hybrid work is coordination35:53: Hybrid is coordination. So, it sounds obvious, but if you're on a hybrid plan, whereby, say, you've got to be in the office three days a week, you want to make sure it's the same three days as your team because the thing that sends people mad is coming in and then spending all day on Zoom because everyone else is at home.Why do owners struggle to recognize great management?23:12: So, part of the problem why management isn't great is that owners don't appreciate it or aren't aware of it. The other hard part of it is that it's intangible, so it's hard to buy it. So, you have ten candidates; they all claim they're great managers. How do you know? It's a tough thing to actually turn. Ten consulting firms—every consulting firm claims that it will make you so much money, but whether they do after the event is much less obvious.Do government-owned organizations struggle with managing underperformance?16:34: You find in the data, on average, government-owned organizations tend not to be very well managed, and where they're particularly poor is what I'll call dealing with underperformance. So, if you look at our data, government organizations can be reasonably good at collecting data and having targets, and they can be—they're okay but not great on incentives if you perform well. They're just terrible at dealing with underperformers, and it's partly just politically—it’s painful for politicians; partly they're heavily unionized; partly there's typically also a reason why a government owns a firm.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Frederick Winslow TaylorGeorge StiglerDanaher CorporationunSILOed episode with John RobertsunSILOed episode with Lynda GrattonunSILOed episode with Gene Kim & Steven SpearEconomic Policy Uncertainty IndexRobert PindyckWorld Management SurveyGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at Stanford UniversityProfessional Profile on LinkedInNick Bloom on XHis Work:The Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research Research papersGoogle Scholar page
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    48 mins
  • 461. The Other Gender Gap with Richard V. Reeves

    461. The Other Gender Gap with Richard V. Reeves
    Sep 9 2024
    Women have been systematically marginalized throughout history. However, new research shows a growing gender gap in the other direction. Today, men may face many disadvantages regarding education and the workforce. So, how should society address the disadvantages of both women and men in a nuanced and inclusive way?Richard Reeves founded the American Institute for Boys and Men after writing the book Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about It. His work on class and inequality can also be found in publications like The New York Times and The Atlantic. Richard and Greg discuss the current disadvantages faced by men, the historical context of gender inequality, and potential solutions like “redshirting” boys in education to better serve their developmental needs. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Zero-sum thinking undermines gender progress for all03:41: It feels to some people like it is zero-sum, and that, somehow, to acknowledge the problems of boys and men is to dilute the necessary work that still needs to be done for women and girls. You sort of have to choose, pick a side, or certainly this was the experience that I was warned about, which is that it's just really hard to elevate the problems of boys and men without somehow falling into the trap of being seen as anti-women and girls or anti the progress that they need. And so that zero-sum thinking around gender is a big part of the problem too.Nature matters, but nurture is key in expressing our differences49:14: The thing I find most frustrating about this whole ridiculous nature-nurture debate is that acknowledging some role for nature doesn't make nurture less important. It makes it more important because that is how we learn how to express these natural differences.Are women excelling more educationally?12:26: I think a lot of women have inherited this message: that if you want to get ahead, you're going to have to work even harder. It's almost like an immigrant mindset. It's like, you're going to have to be even better, work even harder. And so that message, I think, has really affected at least one or two generations of women who just seem to have much greater aspiration educationally than boys and men do. And that's playing out in the data.Not a lack of rights, structural shifts leave men unmoored and vulnerable14:25: There are real problems facing boys and men in different areas, but it's not because of a lack of rights, and it's not because of discrimination; it's a result of a series of quite big structural changes in the economy and society that have left a lot of men kind of feeling unmoored, uncertain, and vulnerable, and that problem is just a different problem.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Claudia Goldin | unSILOed Joseph HenrichDavid DemingManhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs by Josh HawleyJordan Peterson The Rise of the Meritocracy by Michael YoungDarrin McMahonGuest Profile:Fellow Profile at Brookings InstituteProfessional WebsiteAmerican Institute for Boys and MenHis Work:Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about ItDream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class Is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That Is a Problem, and What to Do About ItRedshirt the Boys | The AtlanticStop Pretending You’re Not Rich | The New York Times
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    1 hr and 1 min
  • 460. Unraveling Start-Up Success with Mike Maples, Jr. and Peter Ziebelman

    460. Unraveling Start-Up Success with Mike Maples, Jr. and Peter Ziebelman
    Sep 5 2024
    Is there a secret recipe for start-up success? Probably not. But if you take a close enough look at some of the massive success stories like Twitter and Lyft, patterns start to emerge. Venture capitalists Mike Maples, Jr. and Peter Ziebelman pull back the curtain and examine how start-ups go from seedling ideas to billion-dollar companies in their book, Pattern Breakers: Why Some Start-Ups Change the Future.Mike, Peter, and Greg discuss the roles that insight and implementation play in determining a start-up’s chance at success, how investors distinguish between genius and crazy, and why the best founders are like artists.*unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Distinguishing idea vs. insight25:33: [Mike Maples Jr.] A lot of people confuse risk and uncertainty. And so, like, I might have an idea in an existing market that there's a clear need for, but it's a bounded upside idea. But I can connect the dots between the idea, customers wanting it, and a successful business. I might, on the other hand, have an idea that's like Justin TV, right? Which is a reality 24/7 streaming TV show, which is crazy online. But it embodied a lot of inflections and insight. It was a terrible idea, but a great opportunity. And so what we're interested in is not certainty about the future, because if we're going after a non-consensus idea, if we have real insight, we can't know we're certain yet. All we can know is that we're non-consensus. Just because we don't know how the dots will forward connect doesn't mean they won't forward connect. And it doesn't mean that the expected value of the upside isn't higher. So that's what we kind of encourage people to say: just because you don't know how success will happen doesn't mean that it's not way better to pursue that path.The crucial elements that contribute to startup’s breakthrough06:10: [Peter Ziebelman] There's still a lot of luck and perhaps intuition and guesswork to determine whether you're going to find a breakthrough or build a breakthrough. But having said that, we do believe there are elements that can tip the balance—inflections. Another element is seeing that the entrepreneur has insight, something they know to be true that others do not yet believe, and we believe insights are one of the things that explain a lot about startups.Being a founder is like being an artist52:34: [Mike Maples Jr.] A lot of people think about what type of business person is an entrepreneur. And what I've come to believe is that the right way to think about it is they're more like an artist than they are like an engineer, a salesperson, or anything else. [53:06] And by that, I mean two things. First of all, artists notice something that other people don't notice, right? And then the other thing that artists do is convince people to abandon their logic. And so, like, no rational employee would join a startup. No rational customer would buy from a startup. No rational investor would invest in a startup. [53:45] So the founder has to convince all of us to abandon logic and go on a journey where we're 85 percent likely to not succeed. And so the best founders I've ever met have those. Attributes of the artist, and they have the artistry to notice from their sensitivity, and they have the artistry to persuade and convince people. They have the artistry to notice from their sensitivity, and they have the artistry to persuade and convince people. How does a founder balance persistence with openness to new data and insights?21:06: [Mike Maples Jr.] If you have the right insight, when we talk about pivoting, your insight, like in basketball, is like your pivot foot. You hold it planted firm, and you move your body by either modifying your implementation, modifying the audience that you talk to, or some combination. But if you have to leave your pivot foot, you're no longer attached to anything as a startup, right? You might as well start over. You might as well try a new idea or just give up. And so that's where I think you reconcile it. You want to be flexible in your experimentation of navigating your insight to the desperate, but you want to be fixed about what you believe is different about the future.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Hamilton HelmerVilfredo Pareto Reed HastingsScott Cook Justin.tvFounders FundVinod KhoslaGuest Profile:Mike Maples, Jr. Professional Profile at FloodgateMike Maples, Jr. Podcast, Pattern BreakersPeter Ziebelman Professional Profile at Palo Alto Venture PartnersPeter Ziebelman Faculty Profile at Stanford Graduate School of BusinessTheir Work:Pattern Breakers: Why Some Start-Ups Change the Future
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    1 hr and 16 mins