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Drift into Failure
- Narrado por: Sidney Dekker
- Duración: 7 h y 49 m
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Resumen del Editor
What does the collapse of sub-prime lending have in common with a broken jackscrew in an airliner’s tailplane? Or the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico with the burn-up of Space Shuttle Columbia? These were systems that drifted into failure. While pursuing success in a dynamic, complex environment with limited resources and multiple goal conflicts, a succession of small, everyday decisions eventually produced breakdowns on a massive scale.
We have trouble grasping the complexity and normality that gives rise to such large events. We hunt for broken parts, fixable properties, people we can hold accountable. Our analyses of complex system breakdowns remain depressingly linear, depressingly componential - imprisoned in the space of ideas once defined by Newton and Descartes.
The growth of complexity in society has outpaced our understanding of how complex systems work and fail. Our technologies have gotten ahead of our theories. We are able to build things - deep-sea oil rigs, jackscrews, collateralized debt obligations - whose properties we understand in isolation. But in competitive, regulated societies, their connections proliferate, their interactions and interdependencies multiply, their complexities mushroom.
This book explores complexity theory and systems thinking to understand better how complex systems drift into failure. It studies sensitive dependence on initial conditions, unruly technology, tipping points, diversity - and finds that failure emerges opportunistically, non-randomly, from the very webs of relationships that breed success and that are supposed to protect organizations from disaster. It develops a vocabulary that allows us to harness complexity and find new ways of managing drift.
Reseñas de la Crítica
"Dekker is a specialist in things going wrong. He is the world's leading thinker on airline safety. He is concerned about drift into failure in hospitals, on oil drilling platforms, in financial services, on NASA missions. But my hope that the book would somehow be about the human condition in a more intimate way was not disappointed." (Australian Library Review)
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Historia
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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Seeing What Others Don't
- The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
- De: Gary Klein
- Narrado por: Christopher Lane
- Duración: 9 h
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Insights—like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed—or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery.
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Not enough actionable ideas
- De Blair en 02-24-15
De: Gary Klein
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Radical Abundance
- How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization
- De: K. Eric Drexler
- Narrado por: Tim Pabon
- Duración: 11 h y 53 m
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K. Eric Drexler is the founding father of nanotechnology - the science of engineering on a molecular level. In Radical Abundance, he shows how rapid scientific progress is about to change our world. Thanks to atomically precise manufacturing, we will soon have the power to produce radically more of what people want, and at a lower cost. The result will shake the very foundations of our economy and environment.
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Drexler Rehashes the Past
- De David en 10-19-13
De: K. Eric Drexler
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The Complete Guide to Mergers and Acquisitions
- Process Tools to Support M&A Integration at Every Level, 3rd Edition
- De: Timothy J. Galpin, Mark Herndon
- Narrado por: Paul Heitsch
- Duración: 10 h y 39 m
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Merger and acquisition activity across the globe continues to grow, and is also playing a major role in the development of expanding markets. A well-managed integration effort is essential to success, and failure means a tremendous waste in terms of time and money, as well as the rapid destruction of shareholder value. The Complete Guide to Mergers and Acquisitions: Process Tools to Support M&A Integration at Every Level, Third Edition is an invaluable resource to guide firms in managing M&A integration and maximize the value of their deals.
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Sales brochure for the authors
- De J Garner en 04-18-22
De: Timothy J. Galpin, y otros
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Warnings
- Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes
- De: Richard A. Clarke, R.P. Eddy
- Narrado por: L.J. Ganser
- Duración: 12 h y 45 m
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Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?
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On prediction, catastrophe and mitigation
- De S. Yates en 02-28-18
De: Richard A. Clarke, y otros
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Organizational Culture and Leadership, Fifth Edition
- De: Edgar H. Schein, Peter Schein
- Narrado por: Noah Michael Levine
- Duración: 12 h y 34 m
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Organizational Culture and Leadership is the classic reference for managers and students seeking a deeper understanding of the inter-relationship of organizational culture dynamics and leadership. Author Edgar Schein is the 'father' of organizational culture, world-renowned for his expertise and research in the field; in this book, he analyzes and illustrates through cases the abstract concept of culture and shows its importance to the management of organizational change.
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Terrible listening experience
- De Ashley en 01-26-19
De: Edgar H. Schein, y otros
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The Future of the Professions
- How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts
- De: Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind
- Narrado por: John Lee
- Duración: 12 h y 39 m
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This book predicts the decline of today's professions and describes the people and systems that will replace them. In an Internet society, according to Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind, we will neither need nor want doctors, teachers, accountants, architects, the clergy, consultants, lawyers, and many others to work as they did in the 20th century.
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I Hope It's Not All True
- De John en 05-01-16
De: Richard Susskind, y otros
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
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Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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Applied Minds
- How Engineers Think
- De: Guru Madhavan
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 5 h y 22 m
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Through narratives and case studies spanning the brilliant history of engineering, Madhavan shows how the concepts of prototyping, efficiency, reliability, standards, optimization, and feedback are put to use in fields as diverse as transportation, retail, health care, and entertainment. Equal parts personal, practical, and profound, Applied Minds charts a path to a future where we apply strategies borrowed from engineering to create useful and inspired solutions to our most pressing challenges.
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excellent edifying book; great narrator too.
- De Phillip en 01-16-22
De: Guru Madhavan
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Moral Mazes
- The World of Corporate Managers
- De: Robert Jackall
- Narrado por: Johnny Heller
- Duración: 12 h y 20 m
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Robert Jackall's Moral Mazes offers an eye-opening account of how corporate managers think the world works, and how big organizations shape moral consciousness. Based on extensive interviews with managers at every level of two industrial firms and of a large public relations agency, IMoral Mazes takes the reader inside the intricate world of the corporation.
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Well written; poorly narrated
- De C. Youngblood en 09-30-13
De: Robert Jackall
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Superminds
- The Surprising Power of People and Computers Thinking Together
- De: Thomas W. Malone
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
- Duración: 11 h y 11 m
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Many people today are so dazzled by the long-term potential for artificial intelligence that they overlook the much clearer and more immediate potential for a new form of "collective intelligence": the intelligence of groups of people and computers working together. In Superminds, Thomas Malone explains what we need to do to take advantage of this potential. Groundbreaking and utterly fascinating, Superminds will change the way you work - both with others and with computers - for the better.
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"Why did a Kenyan immigrant win the 2008 election"
- De RealTruth en 07-11-18
De: Thomas W. Malone
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You Belong to the Universe
- Buckminster Fuller and the Future
- De: Jonathon Keats
- Narrado por: Josh Bloomberg
- Duración: 5 h y 20 m
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A self-professed "comprehensive anticipatory design scientist", the inventor Buckminster Fuller (1895-1983) was undoubtedly a visionary. Fuller's creations often bordered on the realm of science fiction, ranging from the freestanding geodesic dome to the three-wheel Dymaxion car to a bathroom requiring neither plumbing nor sewage. Yet in spite of his brilliant mind and lifelong devotion to serving mankind, Fuller's expansive ideas were often dismissed, and have faded from public memory since his death.
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Bucky, Bucky, Bucky
- De Amazon Customer en 08-25-18
De: Jonathon Keats
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Why Information Grows
- The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies
- De: César Hidalgo
- Narrado por: Stephen Hoye
- Duración: 5 h y 54 m
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What is economic growth? And why, historically, has it occurred in only a few places? Previous efforts to answer these questions have focused on institutions, geography, finances, and psychology. But according to MIT's anti-disciplinarian César Hidalgo, understanding the nature of economic growth demands transcending the social sciences and including the natural sciences of information, networks, and complexity. To understand the growth of economies, Hidalgo argues, we first need to understand the growth of order.
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Great book!
- De bpjammin en 01-07-17
De: César Hidalgo
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Freedom Evolves
- De: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrado por: Robert Blumenfeld
- Duración: 11 h y 21 m
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Can there be freedom and free will in a deterministic world? Renowned philosopher Daniel Dennett emphatically answers "yes!" Using an array of provocative formulations, Dennett sets out to show how we alone among the animals have evolved minds that give us free will and morality. Weaving a richly detailed narrative, Dennett explains in a series of strikingly original arguments - drawing upon evolutionary biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, and philosophy - that far from being an enemy of traditional explorations of freedom, morality, and meaning, the evolutionary perspective can be an indispensable ally.
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I knew I was going to like this book
- De Gary en 05-30-14
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Drift into Failure
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- Saul
- 08-14-23
Repetitive and generally insightful
I started this book excited to learn about why complex systems fail. While there were some interesting and well-explained case studies (i.e. Alaska 261 crash), the arguments presented in this book are relentlessly repetitive such that the reader has no incentive to finish the book.
The author shrewdly develops arguments against what is framed as Newtonian-Cartesian approaches of reductionist, "down-and-in" thinking for understanding complex systems, but stops short of providing any actionable alternative. It would have been nice to see some specific recommendations of paths forward in the face of rejecting the basis of 300 years of analytical thinking.
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- REK
- 02-15-20
wish I could exchange for another title
Not a good work. I agree with the 2011 review by D. R. Martz now that I have used the text myself.
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