In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford is joined by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to unpack a tumultuous week for global markets, led by the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for imposing tariffs.

Oliver explains how the administration has pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act to apply a temporary flat tariff of 15 per cent on all countries, what the implications are for Australia as it faces a higher rate, and the messy question of tariff refunds for businesses and whether any benefit ever flows back to US consumers.

Tune in to hear:

• Why January's CPI numbers have increased the chances of an RBA hike in May.
• Whether the government is likely to use the upcoming budget to announce major reform.
• The likelihood that volatility in markets will continue.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford is joined by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to break down the latest Australian jobs and wages data, what a still‑tight labour market means for inflation and RBA rate hikes, and how households are really faring in the cost‑of‑living squeeze.

They also look at why the ASX is hitting new highs despite valuation risks, and scan key geopolitical flashpoints – from Iran and oil prices to possible US tariff changes – that could rattle markets in the months ahead.

Tune in to hear:

• Why steady unemployment, strong full‑time job growth, and a slightly lower participation rate are keeping conditions a little tight.
• How real wages in the negative but broader earnings measures and strong employment suggest households overall are OK, not fantastic.
• What is driving the ASX to record highs, and where potential geopolitical flashpoints could impact markets.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford speaks with AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the ASX brushing record highs amid a robust profit reporting season and whether a bullish view on AI is actually a case to exit US tech stocks.

Oliver broke down how strong results from miners and banks has driven the Australian market to a new high despite cost‑of‑living pressures, inflation worries and global geopolitical risks.

Tune in to hear:

• Why AI's long‑term winners may be outside big US tech.
• Whether AI will be truly transformative or if it will fall below expectations.
• How public spending is adding to demand and inflation pressures, but the inflation spike should be partly temporary.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the RBA's decision to increase rates and what it signals for inflation, growth, and housing.

Oliver delves into how elevated aggregate demandis colliding with capacity constraints and weak productivity, leaving Australia more inflation‑prone even at modest growth rates, as well as the impact that the RBA's decision will have on the housing market.

Tune in to hear:

• Why the time is ripe for a tax reform to go further than the mooted changes to the CGT discount.
• Whether tech shares are overvalued as even strong results are met with price dips.
• How a new Federal Reserve chair could impact US monetary policy.

In this episode of the Relative Return Insider podcast, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins host Keith Ford to unpack the latest Australian CPI print, with inflation higher than expected and above the RBA's prior forecasts.

Despite a strong consensus among economists and money markets for a near-term rate hike, Oliver argues this meeting is a close call and there are certainly arguments that the RBA would be better off holding rates to gather more data.

Tune in to hear:

Why the RBA is constrained to using the blunt instrument of rates decisions.

The ongoing relationship between geopolitical risk and the surging price of both precious and industrial metals.

How US political volatility is impacting the Aussie dollar.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack Donald Trump's latest Greenland saga, the TACO pattern of bold threats and inevitable backdowns, and what it all means for markets.

Oliver explains recurring tariff scares, attacks on institutions like the Fed, and broader geopolitical tensions are feeding a persistent "sell America" trade, supporting record gold prices, a weaker US dollar, and heightened demand for defensive assets.

Tune in to hear:

• How to avoid getting caught up in the cycle of trying to decipher Trump's announcements and stick to investing fundamentals.
• Why local political machinations are unlikely to impact markets in the short term.
• What you should know about Japan's bond yields.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack what 2026 might hold for investors amid escalating geopolitical risks and ongoing market volatility.

Despite the noise, Shane argues that Australian growth should pick up, inflation will continue to gradually ease, and the monetary environment will remain broadly supportive of equities – with the RBA likely to stand pat on rates for the short term.

Listen as they explore:

• Why 2026 will likely see reasonable growth but elevated geopolitical risk, driving ongoing market volatility rather than a clear boom or bust.
• The importance of central bank independence and the impact of these concerns on gold and silver.
• Why investors should continue to focus on diversification, long-term returns and managing downside risk.

In this final episode of Relative Return Insider for 2025, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver wrap-up the year, look ahead to 2026, and break down the most interesting numbers from the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

The last 12 months was full of challenges and volatility, but for Oliver the most important takeaway has been the resilience of markets as they were buffeted with geopolitical tensions, inequality concerns, and speculation about an AI bubble.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the government should use its strong political position to pursue meaningful fiscal restraint.
• What the US Fed is likely to do in the face of patchy data due to the shutdown and a slowing but still-resilient labour market.
• Oliver's expectations for the coming year, including moderate growth, higher volatility and still-positive returns.