In this episode of the Relative Return Insider podcast, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins host Keith Ford to unpack the latest Australian CPI print, with inflation higher than expected and above the RBA's prior forecasts.

Despite a strong consensus among economists and money markets for a near-term rate hike, Oliver argues this meeting is a close call and there are certainly arguments that the RBA would be better off holding rates to gather more data.

Tune in to hear:

Why the RBA is constrained to using the blunt instrument of rates decisions.

The ongoing relationship between geopolitical risk and the surging price of both precious and industrial metals.

How US political volatility is impacting the Aussie dollar.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack Donald Trump's latest Greenland saga, the TACO pattern of bold threats and inevitable backdowns, and what it all means for markets.

Oliver explains recurring tariff scares, attacks on institutions like the Fed, and broader geopolitical tensions are feeding a persistent "sell America" trade, supporting record gold prices, a weaker US dollar, and heightened demand for defensive assets.

Tune in to hear:

• How to avoid getting caught up in the cycle of trying to decipher Trump's announcements and stick to investing fundamentals.
• Why local political machinations are unlikely to impact markets in the short term.
• What you should know about Japan's bond yields.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack what 2026 might hold for investors amid escalating geopolitical risks and ongoing market volatility.

Despite the noise, Shane argues that Australian growth should pick up, inflation will continue to gradually ease, and the monetary environment will remain broadly supportive of equities – with the RBA likely to stand pat on rates for the short term.

Listen as they explore:

• Why 2026 will likely see reasonable growth but elevated geopolitical risk, driving ongoing market volatility rather than a clear boom or bust.
• The importance of central bank independence and the impact of these concerns on gold and silver.
• Why investors should continue to focus on diversification, long-term returns and managing downside risk.

In this final episode of Relative Return Insider for 2025, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver wrap-up the year, look ahead to 2026, and break down the most interesting numbers from the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

The last 12 months was full of challenges and volatility, but for Oliver the most important takeaway has been the resilience of markets as they were buffeted with geopolitical tensions, inequality concerns, and speculation about an AI bubble.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the government should use its strong political position to pursue meaningful fiscal restraint.
• What the US Fed is likely to do in the face of patchy data due to the shutdown and a slowing but still-resilient labour market.
• Oliver's expectations for the coming year, including moderate growth, higher volatility and still-positive returns.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate on hold in the face of rising inflation and whether the governor's hawkish tone is a sign of things to come.

Oliver also explains the Fed's move to cut rates for the third time, which he characterises as "insurance" against a softening labour market rather than a sign that it is abandoning its inflation target.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the base case for rates should still be a hold, provided inflation behaves.
• How hyper‑frequent data, constant market checking, and doom‑laden headlines can undermine long‑term investing discipline.
• The outlook for the seasonal Santa rally.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the September quarter GDP figures, which show Australia's economy regaining momentum, with annual growth lifting to 2.1 per cent, the fastest pace in two years, despite a softer-than-expected 0.4 per cent quarterly print.

Oliver explains that headline GDP was dragged down by inventory run-downs and weaker net exports, but underlying domestic demand was supported by robust business investment – particularly in data centres and AI-related infrastructure.

Listen as they explore:

• The implications of the GDP figures on the RBA's future interest rate decisions.
• Why Australian home prices continue to climb.
• How to address the supply side issues constraining housing affordability.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the latest shock consumer price index numbers, which rose to 3.8 per cent in October, as well as the shifting US market and calls for super funds to invest in infrastructure projects.

As US equities swinging sharply before rebounding and AI-driven tech stocks continuing to propel sentiment, Oliver explains why investors may simply be witnessing another temporary correction within a still-intact long-term uptrend.

Listen as they explore:

• Why hotter-than-expected CPI figures have all but ruled out a near-term RBA rate cut.
• What APRA's cap on high debt-to-income lending signals for investor activity.
• The growing interest in tapping super funds for infrastructure investment.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance in response to persistent inflation, subdued growth prospects, and political shifts affecting the nation's journey towards net zero emissions.

The discussion also looks at the growing role of cryptocurrencies, considering whether they could hinder productivity by diverting capital away from productive assets, and if there are any potential risks if investment in the digital asset surges.

Listen as they explore:
• RBA as Australia faces inflation and sluggish productivity growth.
• What a resolution to the US government shutdown means going forward.
• Political uncertainty around net zero targets continuing to cloud the business investment climate.