Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Incerto, Book 1

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Narrated by: Joe Ochman

Fooled by Randomness is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck - or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Presented in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed - the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time - he embodies the “survival of the least fit”. Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness, we can be a little better prepared.

Includes bonus pdf of tables and figures.

Praise for Fooled by Randomness:

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2008 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2019 Random House Audio

Critic reviews

“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” (Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink)

“We need a book like this ...fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” (Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance)

“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins...and Stephen Jay Gould.” (Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate)

“Powerful...loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.” (National Review)

Randomness is a Boon for Bounty

This book should be taught to every high school Sophomore before they enter the rigor of the college testing and application process, as it will allow them to filter out the noise of authority figures and focus on themselves by delving into Taleb’s truly unique worldview.

I look forward to listening to/reading the rest of the series. Truly an exceptional book.

Good

I said that it was good what do you want from me!!! And now I...

Randomly Chosen Book

I love that my choosing this book was so random.

A lot to digest and doubtless that in months to come I shall have a random conversation that shall result in an aha! moment where the authors thoughts shall be blindingly obvious.

Must read it again

One of the best books I’ve read. Very practical applicable to every day life for all people also like the edginess of it

Fantastic job by Ochman

Joe Ochman captures NTT's style superbly.

The book is quite good also. A more philosophical extension to Thinking Fast And Slow by DK & AT. Would recommend.

Not for MBAs and Economist

as I read through, I was humbled by the limit of what I knew, grateful for the privilege and luck I had due to the simple random fact I was born in the family that I come from.

this book makes you skeptic, you will learn to not take your efforts too seriously, your knowledge too important and your circumstance to severe if it were.


if you are an economist, this book would make you feel bad. if you have an MBA, this book would make you feel useless.

The Incerto is a must read

The Incerto is the by far the best book I've read. Antifragile is the best book in the collection, but the other 3 (Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan and Skin in the Game) are all amazing as well and vital listening.

Amazing book and will forever change my investment

would highly recommend this book for every investor as it has changed the entire way I view investments and I will never see the world of investing the same again.

Some Great Highlights

For me, the style of the author was a little off putting at times. It seemed, at times, very high and mighty, and like he was quite significantly discounting large groups of people in petty ways. Of course, each individual's definition of petty varies.

That said, there are some brilliant insights and great ideas in this book that strongly resonated with me. All the discussions of probability based biases that we all experience were very insightful, and immediately examples in my own life of these biases (both from myself and others) would come to mind. Overall, I certainly enjoyed this book, even if at times it felt preachy.

Deep thoughts but left in generalities

Nassim Taleb avdances thought-provoking theses in this book. However his insights remain at a general level and what's lacking for is how to apply these insights to practical situations. Like how, for example would you use Monte Carlo simulations to proof a portfolio against Black Swan events? A big plus of the book, however I found the book's humanity. While the author is good at dishing out, he also shows his own fallibility. He doesn't take himself too seriously and has a sense of humor which made listening enjoyable.