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Radical Uncertainty
- Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
- Narrado por: Roger Davis
- Duración: 15 h y 50 m
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Resumen del Editor
In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter.
Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.
Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands - the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers.
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Other People's Money
- The Real Business of Finance
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 54 m
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The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions.
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Listened twice. Everyone must read this.
- De Tristan en 01-18-16
De: John Kay
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The End of Alchemy
- Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy
- De: Mervyn King
- Narrado por: Greg Wagland
- Duración: 14 h y 3 m
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Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his 10 years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy, he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance.
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Two books in one, both very fine
- De Philo en 07-13-16
De: Mervyn King
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Obliquity
- Why our goals are best achieved indirectly
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Erik Synnestvedt
- Duración: 4 h y 49 m
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A leading economist charts the indirect road to happiness and wealth. Using dozens of practical examples from the worlds of business, politics, science, sports, literature, even parenting, esteemed economist John Kay proves a notion that feels at once paradoxical and deeply commonsensical: The best way to achieve any complex or broadly defined goal-from happiness to wealth to profit to preventing forest fires-is the indirect way.
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Little additional insight
- De Roger Wirth en 01-23-19
De: John Kay
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
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In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Seventh Edition)
- A History of Financial Crises
- De: Robert Z. Aliber, Charles P. Kindleberger
- Narrado por: Alister Austin
- Duración: 19 h y 25 m
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Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a scholarly and entertaining account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries. This seventh edition of an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets. Renowned economist Robert Z. Aliber introduces the concept that global financial crises in recent years are not independent events, but symptomatic of an inherent instability in the international system.
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Lack of theoretical underpinning
- De Dr. Terence M. Dwyer en 09-20-21
De: Robert Z. Aliber, y otros
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Behavioral Economics
- The Basics
- De: Philip Corr, Anke Plagnol
- Narrado por: Dennis Kleinman
- Duración: 8 h y 12 m
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Behavioral Economics: The Basics is the first book to provide a rigorous yet accessible overview of the growing field that attempts to uncover the psychological processes which mediate all the economic judgments and decisions we make. With recommended further readings throughout, this book is essential for all students taking courses in behavioral economics, economic psychology, consumer psychology, microeconomicsm and game theory, and also for professionals looking for an accessible introduction to the topic.
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Great
- De dixon en 12-31-23
De: Philip Corr, y otros
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The Upside of Uncertainty
- A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown
- De: Nathan Furr, Susannah Harmon Furr
- Narrado por: Dina Pearlman
- Duración: 11 h y 13 m
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In The Upside of Uncertainty, INSEAD professor Nathan Furr and entrepreneur Susannah Harmon Furr provide a sweeping guide to embracing uncertainty and transforming it into a force for good. Drawing from hundreds of interviews, along with pioneering research in psychology, innovation, and behavioral economics, Nathan and Susannah provide dozens of tools—including mental models, techniques, and reflections—for seeing the upside of uncertainty, developing a vision for what to do next, and opening ourselves up to new possibilities.
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Real World Usable Advice
- De Nathan & Kira Huggins en 02-23-24
De: Nathan Furr, y otros
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Both/and Thinking
- Embracing Creative Tensions to Solve Your Toughest Problems
- De: Wendy Smith, Marianne Lewis, Amy C. Edmondson - foreword
- Narrado por: Stephanie Dillard
- Duración: 9 h y 47 m
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In Both/And Thinking, Wendy Smith and Marianne Lewis help listeners cope with multiple, knotted tensions at the same time. Drawing from more than twenty years of pioneering research, they provide tools and lessons for transforming these tensions into opportunities for innovation and personal growth.
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Useful and accesssible
- De myurko en 08-31-22
De: Wendy Smith, y otros
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The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
- De: John Maynard Keynes
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 14 h y 37 m
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First published in 1936, Keynes’ ideas had evolved during the difficulties following World War 1 in Europe, and the US crash and the Depression of the 1920s-'30s and the misery of mass unemployment. He deplored the situation where a few individuals or companies stored massive wealth while vast numbers experienced poverty and insecurity (his alarm bells ring today!) and sought to promote initiatives where governments could intervene with social projects to keep money fluctuating.
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Get the paperback
- De Brendan Clune en 02-27-19
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Greed Is Dead
- Politics After Individualism
- De: Paul Collier, John Kay
- Narrado por: Peter Noble
- Duración: 6 h y 45 m
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The idea that people are basically driven by individualism and economic incentives and that prosperity and good societies come from top-down leadership has dominated politics for the last 30 years (from some perspectives, much longer). This book shows that the age of homo economicus and centralisation is coming to an end. Instead, Collier and Kay argue that community and mutuality will be the drivers of successful societies in the future - as they are already in some parts of the world.
De: Paul Collier, y otros
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50 Philosophy Classics
- Thinking, Being, Acting, Seeing, Profound Insights and Powerful Thinking From Fifty Key Books
- De: Tom Butler-Bowdon
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 13 h y 48 m
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From Aristotle to Wittgenstein and Zizek, 50 Philosophy Classics provides a lively entry point to the field of philosophy. Analyses of key works by Descartes, Schopenhauer, Hegel, Heidegger, and Nietzsche also show how philosophy helped shape the thinking and events of the last 150 years.
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intuitive interface
- De abdul shakur en 09-15-16
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You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!
- How Biases Distort Decision-Making-and What You Can Do to Fight Them
- De: Olivier Sibony
- Narrado por: Donald Corren
- Duración: 8 h y 51 m
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A "brilliant, fun, and wise" (Cass R. Sunstein) tour of nine common business decision-making traps - and practical tools for avoiding them - from a professor of strategic thinking.
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Very good book
- De steve en 01-13-22
De: Olivier Sibony
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Tap Dancing to Work
- Warren Buffett on Practically Everything, 1966–2012: A Fortune Magazine Book
- De: Carol J. Loomis
- Narrado por: Susan Boyce, Barry Press
- Duración: 17 h y 38 m
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When Carol Loomis first mentioned a little-known Omaha hedge-fund manager in a 1966 Fortune article, she didn’t dream that Warren Buffett would one day be considered the world’s greatest investor - nor that she and Buffett would become close personal friends. Now Loomis has collected and updated the best Buffett articles Fortune published between 1966 and 2012, including thirteen cover stories and a dozen pieces authored by Buffett himself. Loomis has provided commentary about each major article that supplies context and her own informed point of view.
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A collection of finance articles - not a biography
- De Gerardo A Dada en 08-23-13
De: Carol J. Loomis
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Surfaces and Essences
- Analogy as the Fuel and Fire of Thinking
- De: Douglas Hofstadter, Emmanuel Sander
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 33 h y 53 m
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Analogy is the core of all thinking. This is the simple but unorthodox premise that Pulitzer Prize-winning author Douglas Hofstadter and French psychologist Emmanuel Sander defend in their new work. Hofstadter has been grappling with the mysteries of human thought for over 30 years. Now, with his trademark wit and special talent for making complex ideas vivid, he has partnered with Sander to put forth a highly novel perspective on cognition.
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An analogy to describe this 33-hour book
- De George C. en 11-08-19
De: Douglas Hofstadter, y otros
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Journey to the Edge of Reason
- The Life of Kurt Gödel
- De: Stephen Budiansky
- Narrado por: Bob Souer
- Duración: 8 h y 52 m
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Nearly a hundred years after its publication, Kurt Gödel's famous proof that every mathematical system must contain propositions that are true - yet never provable - continues to unsettle mathematics, philosophy, and computer science. Yet unlike Einstein, with whom he formed a warm and abiding friendship, Gödel has long escaped all but the most casual scrutiny of his life.
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Interesting story of a great mathematician
- De James Orlin en 04-28-22
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The Price of Time
- The Real Story of Interest
- De: Edward Chancellor
- Narrado por: Luis Soto
- Duración: 15 h y 7 m
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In the beginning was the loan, and the loan carried interest. For at least five millennia people have been borrowing and lending at interest. Yet as capitalism became established from the late Middle Ages onwards, denunciations of interest were tempered because interest was a necessary reward for lenders to part with their capital. And interest performs many other vital functions: it encourages people to save; enables them to place a value on precious assets, such as houses and all manner of financial securities; and allows us to price risk.
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Big landscape in time and subjects; Austrian view
- De Philo en 08-29-22
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Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- De: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 10 h y 3 m
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This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
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Pass on this one and read The Black Swan
- De Wade T. Brooks en 06-25-12
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Fluke
- Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters
- De: Brian Klaas
- Narrado por: Brian Klaas
- Duración: 8 h y 54 m
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In Fluke, myth-shattering social scientist Brian Klaas takes a deep-dive into the phenomenon of random chance and the chaos it can sow, taking aim at most people’s neat and tidy version of reality. The book’s argument is that we willfully ignore a bewildering truth: but for a few small changes, our lives—and our societies—could be radically different.
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brain breaking in a good way
- De stacey a shapiro en 03-07-24
De: Brian Klaas
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Radical Uncertainty
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- perpetual A
- 06-08-20
Provoking much food for thought
Great insight into oneself ... it certainly makes you think about what you think you know ... and what reality is .... my joke about the author is I don’t like him because he’s an economist ....I don’t like him because he speaks English ... if one were to lay all the economist head to toe a ring around the world would be former...but they would never reach a decision..... book gets very draggy at times and I did pick up the speed at which it was narrated
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- Forbes
- 11-04-20
A great read
The book is filled with interesting anecdotes and histories. The narrator’s dry delivery is perfect for the humorous economic inconsistencies that fill the pages.
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- Zeno
- 06-24-21
Thorough Treatment of Essential Concepts
A great addition and complement for those who enjoyed Peter Bernstein's Against the Gods, and Nassim Taleb's Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness, The book covers key concepts in decision science, probability, and game theory by using interesting and easy to grasp examples. Even if you are familiar with some, most, or all of the content, much tends to be slippery and unintuitive; (e.g. The Monty Hall problem, which is given an excellent treatment here). The more I hear these concepts, the better I am reminded to avoid common and easy to make financial mistakes in the future.
As for the narration, Roger Davis did an excellent job with both pronunciation and presentation. So often great books are marred by bad narrators, which happily is not the case here. Mr. Davis enhanced the material, which I had already read in print form. Too bad he didn't narrate Time of the Magicians, and Kindred; two excellent books that terrible narrators ruined in audio format.
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- H2O_Doc
- 12-09-20
Outstanding and broadly applicable
Very well done and widely applicable to many disciplines and life in general. Well read, too, for those of you who focus too much on the speaker.
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- Stevtar
- 04-06-23
Best resurrection since Lazarus
Kudos to King and Kay for resurrecting the importance of radical uncertainty, especially in a fun and enjoyable manner that’s relatively simple (and also explains how more advanced models can often give false precision/comfort when knowledge is lacking)
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- Fred
- 05-17-23
Outstanding
People will go to great lengths to avoid thinking. People should read this book. Balanced, informed, practical and, dare I say, enlightening. Also an entertaining and enjoyable read.
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- steve
- 10-06-23
Excellent book
The narration is well done and you can listen at 1.5 times speed with no problem.
“What is really going on?” Excellent and something I will use many times many times a day
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- Philo
- 03-18-20
At 1:23:50: "we must expect ... a virus"
Of books I've read, this is closest to (the terrific) Against the Gods: The remarkable Story of Risk, by Peter L. Bernstein.
It is about reckoning with uncertainty in all areas of life: measuring, modeling, guessing, betting, deciding, and committing.
This (well-timed) work is not as graceful, lyrical, or punchy as Nassim Taleb's best. But it is more disciplined and thorough. It is an education in one book, and takes pains to go over the major thinkers up to now, pretty systematically. Taleb by comparison wilfully flashes past things he assumes the reader knows, and goes whither he will. This book makes frequent reference to the "black swan" idea (and credits Taleb). But this book is more English and English school-like in tone and style, whereas Taleb is more Mediterranean, near-eastern, and ancient-epic. This one takes its time, colorfully enough, to see that you have a deep and wide background in its subject. It wanders around more capaciously, slipping into various stories of things unexpected. At moments it can seem a bit slack in the pacing. What it does for me is help me build my tool kit for (I'm already far down this path) a broad re-callibration of how I view and process and decide in my world. I see it as an antidote to the shared hallucination we (in USA) might now be awakening from -- the (relative) apparent certitudes of the mid- and later-20th century, and even (though it has been pretty well shaken lately) the 21st. I enjoy this one, alongside Taleb's works (which are maybe a more entertaining entry point to this probabilistic thinking, preferably in the order of their release), and also (if you are skewed toward an interest in finance as I am) this book's co-author Mervyn King's The End of Alchemy (also here on audible). End of Alchemy in a context of finance and banking gives a very elegant introduction to this same "radical uncertainty" idea, as explaining much of what finance does, whereas this one generalizes the idea to all our doings. This book certainly fits the unfolding era of COVID-19 like a glove, meanwhile giving me some degree of (relaxing?) intellectual distance from today's headlines, and more broad framework for considering it all, and making decisions (which are happening deeply and daily for me in real time as I write this, March 2020, and I see no end to this accelerated period of change). The narration here is sharp and effective.
Underneath, where's the beef? The authors are skeptical of a lot of quantitative modeling, and what they go for ("What is going on here?") might fit in risk management jargon as scenarios (though they stubbornly refuse to use the word). As a positive and novel view, it comes out a bit mushy. The concept of a "reference narrative" is useful, though how this departs from the (again essentially uncredited) concept of anchoring (in behavioral economics) is not clear. So, I didn't see anything strikingly new to me. I did benefit from its leisurely explorations around these themes.
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- Oscar Vestlie
- 03-25-22
good but long
I like the contents of the book but it could be a lot shorter.
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- Armand Jarri
- 08-18-20
Boring and repetitive.Should have hired an editor
This book extremely boring. Narration is monotonous. Author repetes the same satement over and over. Sometimes even using the same phrasing. Examples are long and winding ( history of the the PC, for example) that you forget the original premise. He should have hired an editor.
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