This week on Weighing the Risks we will revisit the topic of China, arguably the most unloved market in the global economy. Are the risks properly appreciated, or are the risks even deeper than most investors believe? What might these risks mean, not only for the Chinese economy and markets, but also for the world? Learn more at orion.com.

Key Takeaways

• [03:49] - Brendan’s professional background and what he focuses on, specifically, at KraneShares.
• [06:07] - People are attempting to point out a lot of similarities between the current real estate issues in China and the Great Financial Crisis in America. Is this a fair comparison to make in Brendan’s opinion?
• [08:46] - Recently we’ve started to see some of the big name CEOs re-emerge from their seemingly self-imposed isolation – is this a good sign or a false spring? Should we have concerns about government intervention like many are arguing?
• [15:25] - Does the current economy in China look like it might continue a slow descent similar to Japan’s economic doldrums of the 80s?
• [19:40] - What might be the effects on the relationship between the US and China based on the outcome of our upcoming presidential election?
• [22:54] - What might be some catalysts to turn the Chinese market around and get American investors engaged again?
• [26:12] - Some potential market scenarios and Brendan’s thoughts on their plausibility.
• [35:42] - What are some other risks investors should be thinking about right now?

Quotes

[09:40] ~ “China does need the West, they need foreign investors [and] foreign corporations. They’re not like a Russia, they can’t afford to be ostracized.”

[17:42] - "We outsource our pollution to these people in Asia. Raise your hand if you want a rare earth processing plant down the road, or a coal smelter…not in my backyard is unfortunately a pretty powerful incentive. What our consumption does to China and a lot of these countries is terrible." ~ Brendan Ahern

[36:42] - "My worry is more [about] this “China McCarthyism in DC. It’s very detached from [the] economic reality of how intertwined our economies are. That’s my bigger risk, is a political [one]...and you know, it takes two to tango, so it could be from the China side, not just the US political side, that some of this just gets a little out of hand. [Though] I’d argue there’s clearly an effort at a high level to stabilize things, which is necessary. " ~ Brendan Ahern

Links

• Brendan Ahern on LinkedIn
• KraneShares
• China Last Night

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Disclosure(s)

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