• Private Equity Plays Pass the Parcel
    Apr 22 2024
    This week we turn our attention back to private markets where Richard’s prior smoke signals may be bearing fruit. That is, we’re getting reports that private equity is playing pass the parcel: selling assets to themselves that they can’t exit and doing so at their own valuations. Marking your own homework? Delaying a bubble that’s sure to burst? Or is it simply remortgaging from one bank to another. [Repeat from October, 2023.]

    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    38 mins
  • Behind the Balance Sheet with Stephen Clapham
    Apr 15 2024
    This week we have a distinguished guest with an estimable track record at calling out the machinations and malfeasance behind the numbers: Stephen Clapham, the driving force of Behind the Balance Sheet, a podcast of the same name and education company. Stephen helps teach fund managers and others the tricks of financial chicanery and magical massaging of the numbers. (Repeat from July, 2024.)

    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    45 mins
  • Troubling Times
    Apr 8 2024

    Our recent episode on Reddit was a surprise hit, as was the stock - temporarily - so we’ll be diving into that and much more. This week, a look at the volatile nature of financial markets with discussions around recent events, critiquing the creator economy, speculative frenzy in cryptocurrencies, and tech market overvaluation.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer dive into discussions about financial market volatility and the phenomenon of market bubbles, touching on topics like the recent Reddit IPO and the cryptocurrency crisis exemplified by FTX’s fallout. They critically assess the risk and reality of investments, using illustrative examples to underline the often speculative nature of today’s financial markets. They also segue into discussions on the creator economy, the disruptive potential of AI and chips in the movie industry, and concerns around the instability of personal debt amidst rising interest rates. The episode concludes with recommendations for insightful reads, exploring themes from technological impacts on society to the resilience needed in today's challenging world.


    00:02 Introduction

    00:38 Part One

    06:17 The Reality of Stock Market Manias and Personal Debt

    08:25 Exploring the Trump SPAC and the Fate of Cameo

    12:45 The Crypto Conundrum: Skepticism Meets Reality

    16:52 Part Two

    16:52 Navigating the Creator Economy and Tech Innovations at SXSW

    22:19 The Economic Impact of Data Centers

    22:46 AMD's Influence in the Film Industry

    23:31 The Challenges of AI in Hollywood

    24:38 Chip Makers: The New Brand Ambassadors

    25:31 Rethinking the Creator Economy

    26:46 The Long Tail Dilemma in the Creator Economy

    27:48 The Misconception of Loyalty in the Digital Age

    31:49 Music Industry's Paradox: Growth vs. Sustainability

    33:43 Inflation's Impact on the Music Industry

    36:43 Easter Reading Recommendations

    41:28 Closing Thoughts and Future Episodes



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    42 mins
  • You Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're Going: Big Tech vs Big Gov Tech with Bill Raduchel
    Apr 1 2024

    This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves.

    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a deep dive conversation with guest Bill Raduchel, exploring his extensive 60-year career transitioning from chemical engineering to economics, and eventually into the tech and media industries. Raduchel discusses his views on conventional wisdom, the evolution of technology, and its implications on economics, suggesting that technology has outpaced neoclassical economic theories due to its scaling properties and the significance of information. He shares insights from his book and experiences, addressing issues like tech debt, government staffing challenges in the face of rapid technological advancements, and the potential impact of AI on the future of software development. The episode covers the dynamic between big tech companies, government regulation, and the inevitable challenges posed by significant shifts towards AI and increased power demands. Raduchel also presents intriguing ideas on innovating government structures and discusses the practicalities of managing a rapidly evolving tech landscape.


    00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation

    00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics

    06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics

    08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book

    11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges

    17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing

    19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization

    25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics

    25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two

    25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword

    25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity

    26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation

    27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges

    29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization

    30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation

    31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation

    34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech

    40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation

    42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce

    44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation

    50:06 Credits



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    51 mins
  • Fiscal Drag Queen
    Mar 25 2024

    This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…


    Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:46 Part One

    00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights

    01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity

    02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue

    04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society

    07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector

    11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance

    13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency

    16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge

    22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen

    23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation

    23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth

    25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands

    26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag

    27:22 Part Two

    27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity

    28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity

    32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities

    36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality

    43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark

    47:28 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    48 mins
  • Reddit and Weep
    Mar 18 2024

    So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.


    00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles

    01:02 Part One

    01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore

    02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive

    03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials

    06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit

    08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics

    10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects

    16:00 Part Two

    16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights

    20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations

    21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off

    21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive

    23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections

    24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic

    25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals

    27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality

    29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics

    34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs

    38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape

    40:20 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    41 mins
  • Browser Wars: Brave vs. Goliath
    Mar 11 2024

    When looking at today's issues of privacy, social media, and AI, we can draw a lot from the battles of the browsers over the past 30 years. To explore this, we welcome a close friend onto the show, the father of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend, Brendan Eich. Brendan left the CTO role of Mozilla firefox years ago and embarked on a journey to scale up a privacy-first browser and search business that would reward the sites you visit with a token reflecting your attention and value. (Repeat from July, 2023)


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    Navigating the AI Hype: Lessons from a Tech Visionary


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist-author Will Page engage in a rich conversation with Brendan Eich, the creator of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend. They delve into the intricacies of the tech industry, exploring AI developments, privacy issues, and the history of browser wars. Eich discusses his journey from Netscape to founding Brave, a privacy-first browser and search business, sharing insights on big tech’s strategies, the pitfalls of surveillance capitalism, and the nuances of rewarding creators in the digital age. Furthermore, the trio critiques current AI hype, discussing its implications for the tech ecosystem and underlining the interplay between technological innovation and user empowerment.


    00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble

    00:59 Part One

    03:03 Tackling Surveillance Capitalism and the Creator Economy

    06:24 Privacy, Policy, and the Power of User-First Philosophy

    12:29 The Evolution of Browser Wars and the Role of Regulation

    24:06 Part Two

    24:10 AI's Potential to Disrupt Big Tech's Dominance

    25:28 AI Models and Data Quality Challenges

    26:24 The Impact of AI on Content Creation and Privacy

    27:06 Economic Foundations and the Strategy Tax in Tech

    30:55 The Power of Defaults and Consumer Choices

    36:33 Regulating AI: Industry Perspectives and Challenges

    39:07 The Future of Translation and AI's Role

    44:00 Navigating the Hype: AI Investments and the Reality

    47:10 Closing Thoughts on AI, Privacy, and the Future of Tech

    47:48 Credits



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    48 mins
  • Kill the Chicken to Scare The Monkey with guest Linda Yueh
    Mar 4 2024

    This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis.

    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu


    This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.


    00:02 Introduction

    00:47 Part One

    00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship

    01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes

    02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns

    06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns

    08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination

    15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System

    22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History

    26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures

    29:58 Part Two

    30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises

    31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics

    32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China

    32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges

    33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future

    33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble

    34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies

    35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation

    39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks

    41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness

    46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies

    55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility

    59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises

    01:00:30 Credits



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    1 hr and 1 min