This week, we freeform on two topics: summer music festivals and the stock markets. Will has identified a very interesting bubble this summer, which is the rapid cancellation of music festivals. Perhaps because supply got ahead of demand or perhaps because of extraneous factors, we wanna look into why so few people want to be standing out in their field or outstanding in their field. We're also gonna talk a little bit about the way in which random comments from politicians are roiling the stock markets.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, economist Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer discuss the rapid cancellation of music festivals amidst the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic squeeze and over-supply of events. They detail the impact on the live music ecosystem, examining how financial constraints and shifting consumer choices are reshaping the market. Additionally, they delve into how random political comments are affecting the stock markets, with a specific focus on a recent market wobble triggered by remarks from Donald Trump and the narrowing breadth of tech stock support. The episode links the volatility in both the live music industry and financial markets, providing a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:58 Part One

00:58 The Decline of Music Festivals

02:09 Supply and Demand in Live Music

04:14 Economic Factors Affecting Festivals

07:29 The Impact on the Music Ecosystem

08:38 Dynamic Pricing and Ticketing Issues

15:44 The Future of Live Music and Festivals

20:33 Part Two

21:10 Market Turmoil: What's Happening?

22:39 The Fragility of the Market

23:37 Political Impact on Markets

24:12 Investor Reactions and Strategies

29:56 Global Market Contagion

33:23 The Tech Sector's Wild Ride

34:40 Political Volatility and Market Uncertainty

41:44 Credits

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Today we’ve got a guest who's been doing our job for decades. Andrew Orlowski is a writer who has followed the technology industry for two decades, so he’s see the hype cycle peak and trough many times.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by veteran technology journalist Andrew Orlowski. They delve into the recurring market bubbles and dissect the relentless hype surrounding AI and machine learning. Orlowski discusses his track record in identifying technology bubbles and shares his skepticism about the transformative claims made about AI, comparing it to historical overhyped innovations like the metaverse and cryptocurrency. The discussion also touches on the implications of AI on productivity, labor markets, and the economy at large, highlighting the disconnect between policy elites’ expectations and real-world applications. Throughout, the panel emphasizes the broader societal impacts and the role of critical scrutiny in understanding technological advancements.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:44 Part One

00:49 Meet Andrew Orlowski

01:43 The Origins of Bubble Trouble

02:06 Spotting Bubbles: Andrew's Track Record

02:39 Google's Market Manipulation

07:00 The AI Hype Cycle

12:08 AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism

19:10 The Future of AI and Technology

26:13 Debunking the Efficiency Myth in Tech Companies

26:39 The Role of AI in Financial Markets

28:10 AI Skepticism and the Hype Cycle

28:20 Part Two

29:02 The Future of Chatbots and Machine Learning

30:06 Public Skepticism vs. Elite Optimism

35:54 The Nature of Work and Productivity

42:13 The Middle Class Advantage in the Modern Workplace

45:40 The AI Bubble and Its Implications

49:01 Smoke Signals: Red Flags in the AI Industry

51:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

51:51 Credits

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[Repeat from November, 2023.]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page welcome Liam Maxwell, former Chief Technology Officer for the British government and current AWS Senior Advisor, to delve into the transformative potential of the cloud. Together, they break down how cloud-based technologies are revolutionizing different sectors, from governments to private enterprises. Exploring clear cases such as the Ukrainian war situation or the everyday banking experience in Singapore, they highlight the impressive efficiency, flexibility, and speed offered by the cloud. The discussion also touches on the major productivity gains the cloud provides, the importance of building services centered on user needs, and how the digital economy is captured by government indices.

00:00 Introduction

01:14 Part One

01:32 Interview with Liam Maxwell

01:54 Liam's Journey in Tech and Government

02:25 The Impact of Cloud on Government Services

06:40 The Transition from Traditional IT to Cloud

15:25 The Role of AI in Cloud Adoption

19:24 The Ukraine War and the Role of Cloud

20:35 The Process of Moving Ukraine's Data to the Cloud

27:56 Reflections on the Impact of Cloud Technology

29:33 The Power of Decision Making in Amazon

30:26 Reflections on the UK Government's Test and Trace App

30:58 Part Two

31:27 The Impact of Cloud Technology on Productivity

32:01 The Economic Value of Cloud Technology

33:33 The Paradox of Technological Efficiency and Economic Growth

35:38 The Invisible Contributions of Transformative Technology

37:04 The Role of Cloud Technology in Government Services

39:00 The Challenges of Measuring the Impact of Tech Jobs

39:19 The Potential of Cloud Technology in Enhancing Public Services

51:57 The Impact of Tech Neologisms on Service Delivery

55:23 Closing Remarks and Reflections

56:25 Credits

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This week, part two of our continued conversation with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the intricacies of technology bubbles with special guest Benedict Evans. The discussion revolves around AI advancements, particularly focusing on Apple's recent integrations of AI models, the differentiation between small and large models, and the implications for email summarization and other features. They explore the economic and strategic decisions behind Apple's use of AI, the potential for various large language models (LLMs) to disrupt industries like legal tech, and the broader market dynamics and antitrust considerations. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities presented by these technological advancements, emphasizing the importance of careful analysis and skepticism in the face of rapid innovation.

00:03 Introduction

00:29 Part One

00:29 AI and Apple's New Developments

01:53 Apple's AI Integration and Market Dynamics

04:20 The Evolution of AI Models and Market Impact

12:29 Antitrust and Market Strategies

17:34 Cloud Computing and Business Models

24:49 The Future of Cloud Machine Learning Providers

25:36 Marginal Costs in Consumer Internet Companies

26:16 Generative AI and Cost Efficiency

28:14 Part Two

28:14 Legal Tech and Large Language Models

30:05 Challenges in Selling Software to Law Firms

31:08 Error Rates and AI Hallucinations

34:36 Practical Use Cases for AI in Legal Scenarios

36:27 Evaluating AI's Potential and Limitations

41:05 Recognizing Tech Bubbles and Market Hype

44:59 Concluding Thoughts on AI and Market Trends

47:27 Credits

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This week we are talking bubbles - or not! - with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog. We’ve done our level best to reflect on why bubbles happen, but what about calling them out before they burst. “It would have been nice to have known” we were in a bubble before it caused trouble. That wish fits like an OJ Simpson glove into a recent column by Benedict exploring how and when to call them. With AI mania and NVIDIA up 130% this year and 700% in 18 months, lifting many other boats with it, this will be a timely conversation.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the phenomenon of market bubbles with tech analyst Benedict Evans. They discuss the intricacies of identifying bubbles before they burst, explore the role and future implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and touch upon how companies disclose crucial data. Benedict shares his career journey and insights on tech market dynamics, providing a detailed perspective on AI's potential impacts and strategic questions surrounding tech advancements. This episode offers a mix of reflective analysis and forward-looking forecasts in the tech landscape.

00:00 Introduction

01:06 Meet Benedict Evans

01:22 Benedict's Career Journey

02:59 The Art of Simplifying Complex Points

07:48 The Role of Public Companies in Market Bubbles

13:01 Tech Industry Cycles and Bubbles

19:56 Part Two

20:13 Generative AI: The Next Big Thing?

36:44 The Future of AI and Its Impact

39:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

40:20 Credits

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This week we’re going to split lanes as we’ve got breaking news coming out of Canada that Will’s been knee deep in: soon after their Government tried to regulate Google and Meta news, they’re now after Spotify and Netflix. Think contagion and buckle up - this may well be the sign of the regulatory times. Once we’re done with Canadians, we turn our attention to Cuppertino as we’ve just seen the WWDC wrap up the calendar of set piece marketing - Google, Meta, Microsoft and more - all now done and dusted. It's all become a slick operation, but what’s and not said can help us decipher the narratives of the most watched companies on the planet and these events have now gone mainstream.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page delve into the recent regulatory developments in Canada targeting streaming giants like Spotify and Netflix following earlier regulation attempts on Google and Meta. They explore the implications of Canada's new gross revenue contribution policy on streaming services and its potential impact on consumers and competitors. Additionally, the duo examines the wrap-up of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and discusses the trends, leaks, and undertones of major tech company events, including the strategic presentations, the nuances of unsaid elements, and the ever-tightening grip of technological giants on the market. The episode aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of tech regulation and market domination.

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:08 Canadian Regulatory News

01:12 Impact on Streaming Services

01:30 Historical Context of Canadian Regulations

02:24 Current Regulatory Actions and Reactions

07:51 Tech Giants' Marketing Events

08:39 The Magnificent Seven and Market Concentration

10:17 The Role of Marketing in Tech

11:17 The Evolution of Tech Events

18:21 The Importance of Perception in Tech Announcements

21:03 Reading Between the Lines

32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This summer, a lot of us (and our children) will be packing our tents and heading to music festivals and concerts - there is trouble brewing. At one end, good luck buying a ticket and watching those fees add up. At the other end, the DoJ threw down the gauntlet and argued that Live Nation Ticketmaster needs to be broken up. This is big for music, and it’s also big for anti-trust - they’ve actually picked a fight and we’re ringing the bell for round one. Gloves off, where might there be punches below the belt. What can markets learn when the DoJ enters the ring?

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Bubble Trouble: The Live Nation Antitrust Case

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Independent Analyst Richard Kramer and Economist Will Page delve into the intricacies of the Live Nation antitrust case brought by the DOJ. They explore the history of antitrust regulations, Live Nation's market dominance, and the implications for the live music industry. The discussion covers topics such as the control of ticketing, venues, and artists by Live Nation, the bundling of services, and the economic impact on smaller venues. The hosts debate the potential outcomes of the case and critique the inefficiencies in the current ticketing system, especially the Ticketmaster app. They also touch on broader issues in live music, including the decline of small venues and the impact of social isolation on festival attendance.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

01:16 Part One

01:46 Understanding Antitrust and Live Nation's Market Power

03:59 Live Nation's Business Model and Market Impact

16:00 Part Two

17:15 The Ticketmaster Experience: A Consumer's Nightmare

27:06 Economic Realities of the Live Music Industry

34:44 Conclusion and Future Outlook

38:15 Credits

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