“I had a feeling of the essential rightness of all. He was dead and I was alive; it could so easily have been the other way round; and that would somehow have been right too.”

- Richard Hillary, Royal Air Force pilot, reflecting on the first German plane he shot down

In this episode we look at the controversial claim made by US Army General S.L.A. Marshall in 1947, when he asserted that less than 25% of US riflemen fired their weapons at the enemy in WWII. What is usually called the ratio-of-fire statistic, Marshall’s thesis almost immediately influenced the US Army did undergo training reforms to ensure more of its troops fire their weapons, which have succeeded such by the Vietnam War, over 90% of troops were firing at the enemy. The ratio-of-fire statistic had proven to be influential outside military circles, having inspired numerous social scientists to accept the notion that soldiers have an innate reluctance to kill, despite whatever training or propaganda they are exposed to. Here we dig deeper to investigate the evidence for Marshall’s claim and explore why it has proven to endure despite the controversy and criticism surrounding it.

"AIR RAID ON PEARL HARBOR. THIS IS NOT DRILL."
– US Navy dispatch, December 7, 1941.

In this episode we look at one of the all-too frequent examples of a successful surprise attack in modern warfare. Most students of history are familiar with the basics: an (un)fortunate set of circumstances enabled Japanese carrier air forces to achieve complete surprise and inflict heavy damage to US military forces at the Hawaiian naval base. Here we dig a little deeper to investigate why the Japanese decided to go to war with the United States and ultimately why the attack failed to achieve the strategic goal set out by its planners. Seen mostly from the Japanese perspective, it is a tale of how pressures on policymakers and commanders often push them into making decisions against their better judgement and issuing vague military orders that result in sloppy execution.

"Moltke is not a general to copy but to study"
- J.F.C. Fuller

In this episode we look at Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), the Prussian Chief of the Prussian General Staff most noted for the dramatic Prussian victories over Austria and France which led to the foundation of Germany in 1871. Most historians will casually acknowledge him as a brilliant military figure and attribute the dramatic rise of Prussia military prowess to his leadership. Not wrong, but not quite right. Moltke was not a battlefield commander and did not even issue direct orders at the battles the history books credit him for winning. So, we are talking about a system here, an operation which could win battles and change the course of military history without the need for or the personal intervention of a genius. Moltke was representative of a breakthrough in military thinking, organization, and efficiency carried out by what was an obscure group of professionals dedicated to such matters known as the Prussian General Staff. That every modern major military has a General Staff is a testament to Moltke’s historical importance.